Was just going to put up some random images,but instead i'll put up some gambling information (which i stole from Wizard of Odds) and sprinkle images throughout in humorous fashion. I can't guarantee that the pics will be topical.
Chairman, 16th Parallel Gaming Commission and House Gaming Control Board
Last update: Aug. 21, 2010
Source of Data
sportsbettingdatabases.com. I had to remove some games for lack of information, and I corrected many typographical errors. Basically, I felt the data was a bit rough, so please take my analysis below with a grain of salt.
The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors, and bases from 2000 to 2009.
1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.
Following are some records from the "zeros" decade.
Money Line Bets
The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, according to every combination of home or away and favorite, pick or underdog. The table is crossed by whether the sports book uses a 10-cent, 15-cent or 20-cent line. For those unfamiliar with the term, a 10-cent line, for example, means the lines on the two teams are usually 10 points apart — for example +140 and -150.
It is not a typo that the table shows a player advantage for home underdogs of 2.07% against a 10-cent line. This may be partially due to a sampling error.
The following table shows the winning side of total bets in each game.
Assuming the player lays 110 every time, the house edge is 6.29% on over bets and 2.38% on under bets. Seldom do casinos have total bets with less juice than 10 cents.
Run Line Bets
The first table is for away underdogs +1.5 runs. To get the fair money line the other way, on a home favorite -1.5 runs, take the opposite line by multiplying by -1.
Let's take a look at an example to see how to use the table. On April 6, 2010, the Las Vegas Hilton offered the following bets on the Yankees vs. Red Sox game. As always, the home team is listed last.
Yankees +1.5 -152
Red Sox -1.5 +152
The actual run lines are -170 and +150. Assuming my analysis was correct, the house edge on the Yankees run line would be 4.20% and on the Red Sox it would be 0.79%.
By the way, the actual score of the game was Yankees 6, Red Sox 4.
The next table shows the fair run lines for home underdogs. The reason for the significant difference between it and the away underdog table above is because it is more valuable to get the extra 1.5 runs on an away team. This is because the game will be over after any winning play by the home team in the 9th or later inning. Thus, there are a lot of games where the home team wins by one run.
To use the table, look up the line on the lower of the two lines if betting the under, and the higher if betting the over. Whether you use the second or third column will depend on whether you're looking at an over or under bet, and whether the base line is odd, even, odd +0.5, or even +0.5. To be specific, if you're interested in the under, use the second column for an odd or even +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column. If you're interested in the over, use the second column for an odd or odd +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column.
Let's look at an example of how to use the table. In the Astros vs. Marlins game today (Aug. 20, 2010) as I write this, you can get under 7.5 at the Hilton for -105 or under 8 at the MGM for -135. Which is the better bet? 7.5 is an "odd +0.5" number. The -105 row and the "even, odd +0.5" column meet at -123. That means you should be indifferent between betting under 7.5 -105 and under 8 -123. The actual MGM price was -135, so in this example the under 7.5 -105 at the Hilton is the better bet.
The next table shows the fair price to pay if you want to buy a half point off of an over bet. For example, in the same Astros vs. Marlins game, you can bet over 7.5 at -115 at the Hilton or over 8 at +115 at the MGM. Which is the better bet? We should use 8 as the base line, because the alterative of 7.5 is a half-point better. So looking at the +115 row and the "even or even +0.5" column we see the fair equivalent is -102. The Hilton price on over 7.5 is -115, which is worse than -102, making over 8 +115 at the MGM the better bet.
Let's look at some more examples. Here are some lines from the Braves Vs. Cubs game.
Hilton: Over 10 -115, Under 10 -105
MGM: Over 10.5 EV, Under 10.5 -120
If we assume under 10 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 10.5 -123. So the under 10.5 -120 at the MGM is better. If we assume over 10.5 EV to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 10 -117. So the over 10 -115 at the Hilton is better.
Next, here are lines from the Bluejays vs Red Sox game.
Stations: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115
Hilton: Over 8 -125, Under 8 +105
If we assume under 8 +105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 8.5 -111. The under 8.5 -115 at Stations is not as good, so under 8 +105 is the better bet. If we assume over 8.5 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 8 -123. The over 8 -125 at the Hilton is not as good, so the over 8 -105 is the better bet.
Total Runs, Hits, and Errors
Sometimes in the post-season, the casinos will offer an over/under prop on the total combined runs, hits and errors. I noticed there is a fairly linear relationship between the projected total and the actual total of runs, hits and errors. The least-squares regression line for the estimated total runs, hits and errors is 12.45 + 1.817 × t, where t represented the estimated total.
The following table shows the estimated and actual total runs, hits and errors according to the projected total runs.