Giants' Magic Number: 3

Was just going to put up some random images,but instead i'll put up some gambling information (which i stole from Wizard of Odds) and sprinkle images throughout in humorous fashion.  I can't guarantee that the pics will be topical.
Katie Greene
Chairman, 16th Parallel Gaming Commission and House Gaming Control Board

Betting Major League Baseball Last update: Aug. 21, 2010 Introduction The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows. Money line: Bet on which team will win. Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12. Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team. Source of Data The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 10 years encompassing the 2000 to 2009 seasons. The data was purchased at sportsbettingdatabases.com. I had to remove some games for lack of information, and I corrected many typographical errors. Basically, I felt the data was a bit rough, so please take my analysis below with a grain of salt. Fun Facts The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors, and bases from 2000 to 2009. MLB Averages 2000-2009 Item Away Home Total1 Runs 4.68 4.83 9.52 Hits 9.17 9.05 18.22 Errors 0.65 0.63 1.29 Bases 15.65 15.59 31.23 Notes 1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding. Following are some records from the "zeros" decade. Most runs: 36 (Rangers vs. Red Sox, Aug 12, 2008). Most hits: 43 (Marlins vs. Rockies, July 4, 2008). Most errors: 8 (tie between six games on Jun. 12, 2002, Sep. 13, 2002, Sep. 10, 2003, Sep. 8, 2006, Sep. 12, 2006, Sep. 16, 2007). Money Line Bets The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, according to every combination of home or away and favorite, pick or underdog. The table is crossed by whether the sports book uses a 10-cent, 15-cent or 20-cent line. For those unfamiliar with the term, a 10-cent line, for example, means the lines on the two teams are usually 10 points apart — for example +140 and -150. It is not a typo that the table shows a player advantage for home underdogs of 2.07% against a 10-cent line. This may be partially due to a sampling error. Money Line Bets in MLB Bet on Sample Size 10-cent Line 15-cent Line 20-cent Line Home favorite 15797 -1.81% -2.92% -3.99% Home dog 7977 2.07% 0.92% -0.19% Home pick 492 0.00% -1.13% -2.22% Away favorite 7977 -4.94% -6.02% -7.05% Away dog 15797 -1.88% -2.99% -4.05% Away pick 492 -4.76% -5.84% -6.87% All home 24266 -0.84% -1.97% -3.04% All away 24266 -3.17% -4.27% -5.32% All favorite 23774 -2.79% -3.89% -4.94% All dog 23774 -0.55% -1.68% -2.76% All pick 984 -2.38% -3.49% -4.55% All 48532 -1.90% -3.01% -4.07% Total Bets The following table shows the winning side of total bets in each game. Total Line Bets in MLB Winner Sample Size Probability Over 11315 46.63% Under 11812 48.68% Push 1139 4.69% Total 24266 100.00% Assuming the player lays 110 every time, the house edge is 6.29% on over bets and 2.38% on under bets. Seldom do casinos have total bets with less juice than 10 cents. Run Line Bets Yes, Marisa Miller is a Giants fan. Unfortunately, my data does not indicate the run line bets. However, I can offer the following tables to help determine the fair run line according to the fair money line (F.M.L.) and total. I used logistic regression to create these tables, which was no easy task. The first table is for away underdogs +1.5 runs. To get the fair money line the other way, on a home favorite -1.5 runs, take the opposite line by multiplying by -1. Fair Run Lines for Away Underdogs +1.5 F.M.L. Total 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 100 -212 -207 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -173 105 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -179 -176 -172 -169 -165 110 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -172 -169 -165 -162 -159 115 -188 -184 -180 -176 -173 -169 -166 -163 -159 -156 -153 120 -181 -177 -174 -170 -167 -163 -160 -157 -154 -150 -147 125 -175 -171 -168 -164 -161 -158 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 130 -169 -165 -162 -159 -156 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -138 135 -164 -160 -157 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133 140 -159 -155 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -137 -135 -132 -129 145 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125 150 -150 -147 -144 -141 -138 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122 155 -146 -143 -140 -137 -134 -131 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119 160 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125 -123 -120 -118 -116 165 -138 -136 -133 -130 -127 -125 -122 -120 -117 -115 -113 170 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -115 -112 -110 175 -132 -129 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -114 -112 -110 -108 180 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 185 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 190 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 195 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101 200 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101 103 210 -114 -112 -110 -108 -105 -103 -101 101 103 105 107 220 -110 -108 -106 -104 -102 100 102 104 107 109 111 230 -107 -105 -103 -101 102 104 106 108 110 112 115 240 -104 -102 101 103 105 107 109 111 114 116 118 250 -101 101 103 106 108 110 112 115 117 119 122 260 102 104 106 109 111 113 115 118 120 123 125 270 105 107 109 111 114 116 118 121 123 126 129 280 107 110 112 114 117 119 121 124 127 129 132 290 110 112 115 117 119 122 124 127 130 132 135 300 112 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138 310 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 133 135 138 141 320 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138 141 144 330 119 122 124 127 130 132 135 138 141 144 147 340 122 124 127 129 132 135 138 140 143 146 149 350 124 126 129 132 134 137 140 143 146 149 152 360 126 128 131 134 137 139 142 145 148 151 154 370 128 131 133 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 157 380 130 133 135 138 141 144 147 150 153 156 159 390 132 135 137 140 143 146 149 152 155 159 162 400 134 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 158 161 164 When you see it, you'll shit bricks. Let's take a look at an example to see how to use the table. On April 6, 2010, the Las Vegas Hilton offered the following bets on the Yankees vs. Red Sox game. As always, the home team is listed last. Yankees vs. Red Sox Team Money Line Total Run Line Yankees 125 9.5 -170 Red Sox -135 150 The fair line on the Yankees would be +130, which can be found by splitting the juice between the two teams. Next, look up the value in the table for +130 and 9.5, which is -152. So fair run line bets would be: Yankees +1.5 -152 Red Sox -1.5 +152 The actual run lines are -170 and +150. Assuming my analysis was correct, the house edge on the Yankees run line would be 4.20% and on the Red Sox it would be 0.79%. By the way, the actual score of the game was Yankees 6, Red Sox 4. The next table shows the fair run lines for home underdogs. The reason for the significant difference between it and the away underdog table above is because it is more valuable to get the extra 1.5 runs on an away team. This is because the game will be over after any winning play by the home team in the 9th or later inning. Thus, there are a lot of games where the home team wins by one run. Fair Run Lines for Home Underdogs +1.5 F.M.L. Total 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 100 -171 -169 -168 -166 -165 -163 -162 -160 -159 -157 -156 105 -164 -162 -161 -159 -158 -156 -155 -153 -152 -150 -149 110 -157 -156 -154 -153 -151 -150 -148 -147 -146 -144 -143 115 -151 -150 -148 -147 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137 120 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137 -136 -135 -134 -132 125 -140 -139 -138 -136 -135 -134 -133 -131 -130 -129 -128 130 -136 -134 -133 -132 -130 -129 -128 -127 -126 -124 -123 135 -131 -130 -129 -127 -126 -125 -124 -123 -122 -120 -119 140 -127 -126 -125 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -117 -116 145 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 150 -120 -119 -117 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 155 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 160 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 165 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100 170 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102 175 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100 101 102 103 104 105 180 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 185 -100 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 190 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 195 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 200 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 117 210 110 111 112 113 114 115 117 118 119 120 121 220 114 115 116 117 119 120 121 122 123 124 126 230 118 119 120 121 123 124 125 126 127 129 130 240 122 123 124 125 127 128 129 130 132 133 134 250 126 127 128 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138 260 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138 139 141 142 270 133 134 135 137 138 139 141 142 143 145 146 280 136 137 139 140 141 143 144 145 147 148 150 290 139 141 142 143 145 146 148 149 150 152 153 300 143 144 145 147 148 150 151 152 154 155 157 310 146 147 149 150 151 153 154 156 157 159 160 320 149 150 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 330 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 340 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 169 170 350 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 168 170 172 173 360 160 162 163 165 167 168 170 171 173 175 176 370 163 165 166 168 169 171 173 174 176 178 179 380 166 167 169 170 172 174 175 177 179 180 182 390 168 170 171 173 175 176 178 180 181 183 185 400 171 172 174 175 177 179 181 182 184 186 188 Alternate Totals It often happens when you want to make an over or under bet in baseball that there are two different totals available. For example, 7.5 and 8. Of course, you have to pay a higher price if you want the half point to work in your favor. The price will depend on whether you are buying or selling an odd or an even number, because in baseball, odd totals are more common than even ones. During the zeros decade (somebody please come up with a term for it), 59.2% of Major League Baseball games ended in an odd total. Hopefully I don't need to explain why. The following tables shows the fair equivalent price to pay for buying an extra half point off either an over or under bet. To use the table, look up the line on the lower of the two lines if betting the under, and the higher if betting the over. Whether you use the second or third column will depend on whether you're looking at an over or under bet, and whether the base line is odd, even, odd +0.5, or even +0.5. To be specific, if you're interested in the under, use the second column for an odd or even +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column. If you're interested in the over, use the second column for an odd or odd +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column. Alternative Totals for Buying a Half Point Market Line Off the Under Odd, Even +0.5 Even, Odd +0.5 Off the Over Odd or Odd +0.5 Even or Even +0.5 -140 -177 -165 -135 -170 -159 -130 -164 -153 -125 -157 -147 -120 -151 -141 -115 -144 -135 -110 -138 -129 -105 -131 -123 100 -125 -117 105 -119 -111 110 -114 -106 115 -109 -102 120 -104 103 125 -100 107 130 104 111 135 108 115 140 112 119 Let's look at an example of how to use the table. In the Astros vs. Marlins game today (Aug. 20, 2010) as I write this, you can get under 7.5 at the Hilton for -105 or under 8 at the MGM for -135. Which is the better bet? 7.5 is an "odd +0.5" number. The -105 row and the "even, odd +0.5" column meet at -123. That means you should be indifferent between betting under 7.5 -105 and under 8 -123. The actual MGM price was -135, so in this example the under 7.5 -105 at the Hilton is the better bet. The next table shows the fair price to pay if you want to buy a half point off of an over bet. For example, in the same Astros vs. Marlins game, you can bet over 7.5 at -115 at the Hilton or over 8 at +115 at the MGM. Which is the better bet? We should use 8 as the base line, because the alterative of 7.5 is a half-point better. So looking at the +115 row and the "even or even +0.5" column we see the fair equivalent is -102. The Hilton price on over 7.5 is -115, which is worse than -102, making over 8 +115 at the MGM the better bet. Let's look at some more examples. Here are some lines from the Braves Vs. Cubs game. Hilton: Over 10 -115, Under 10 -105 MGM: Over 10.5 EV, Under 10.5 -120 If we assume under 10 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 10.5 -123. So the under 10.5 -120 at the MGM is better. If we assume over 10.5 EV to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 10 -117. So the over 10 -115 at the Hilton is better. Next, here are lines from the Bluejays vs Red Sox game. Stations: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 Hilton: Over 8 -125, Under 8 +105 If we assume under 8 +105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 8.5 -111. The under 8.5 -115 at Stations is not as good, so under 8 +105 is the better bet. If we assume over 8.5 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 8 -123. The over 8 -125 at the Hilton is not as good, so the over 8 -105 is the better bet. Awesome jacket. Total Runs, Hits, and Errors Sometimes in the post-season, the casinos will offer an over/under prop on the total combined runs, hits and errors. I noticed there is a fairly linear relationship between the projected total and the actual total of runs, hits and errors. The least-squares regression line for the estimated total runs, hits and errors is 12.45 + 1.817 × t, where t represented the estimated total. The following table shows the estimated and actual total runs, hits and errors according to the projected total runs. Total Combined Runs, Hits and Errors in MLB Total Sample Size Estimated Actual 6 1 23.35 14.00 6.5 71 24.26 24.46 7 610 25.17 24.81 7.5 1635 26.08 26.36 8 2393 26.98 26.74 8.5 4122 27.89 27.80 9 5337 28.80 28.88 9.5 4472 29.71 29.92 10 2395 30.62 30.53 10.5 1736 31.53 31.42 11 747 32.43 32.22 11.5 285 33.34 33.75 12 131 34.25 33.80 12.5 102 35.16 33.61 13 77 36.07 35.97 13.5 55 36.98 36.73 14 47 37.89 35.96 14.5 35 38.79 40.29 15 15 39.70 45.33