Giants' Magic Number: 3

Was just going to put up some random images,but instead i'll put up some gambling information (which i stole from Wizard of Odds) and sprinkle images throughout in humorous fashion.  I can't guarantee that the pics will be topical.
Katie Greene
Chairman, 16th Parallel Gaming Commission and House Gaming Control Board

Betting Major League Baseball Last update: Aug. 21, 2010 Introduction The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows. Money line: Bet on which team will win. Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12. Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team. Source of Data The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 10 years encompassing the 2000 to 2009 seasons. The data was purchased at sportsbettingdatabases.com. I had to remove some games for lack of information, and I corrected many typographical errors. Basically, I felt the data was a bit rough, so please take my analysis below with a grain of salt. Fun Facts The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors, and bases from 2000 to 2009. MLB Averages 2000-2009 Item Away Home Total1 Runs 4.68 4.83 9.52 Hits 9.17 9.05 18.22 Errors 0.65 0.63 1.29 Bases 15.65 15.59 31.23 Notes 1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding. Following are some records from the "zeros" decade. Most runs: 36 (Rangers vs. Red Sox, Aug 12, 2008). Most hits: 43 (Marlins vs. Rockies, July 4, 2008). Most errors: 8 (tie between six games on Jun. 12, 2002, Sep. 13, 2002, Sep. 10, 2003, Sep. 8, 2006, Sep. 12, 2006, Sep. 16, 2007). Money Line Bets The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, according to every combination of home or away and favorite, pick or underdog. The table is crossed by whether the sports book uses a 10-cent, 15-cent or 20-cent line. For those unfamiliar with the term, a 10-cent line, for example, means the lines on the two teams are usually 10 points apart — for example +140 and -150. It is not a typo that the table shows a player advantage for home underdogs of 2.07% against a 10-cent line. This may be partially due to a sampling error. Money Line Bets in MLB Bet on Sample Size 10-cent Line 15-cent Line 20-cent Line Home favorite 15797 -1.81% -2.92% -3.99% Home dog 7977 2.07% 0.92% -0.19% Home pick 492 0.00% -1.13% -2.22% Away favorite 7977 -4.94% -6.02% -7.05% Away dog 15797 -1.88% -2.99% -4.05% Away pick 492 -4.76% -5.84% -6.87% All home 24266 -0.84% -1.97% -3.04% All away 24266 -3.17% -4.27% -5.32% All favorite 23774 -2.79% -3.89% -4.94% All dog 23774 -0.55% -1.68% -2.76% All pick 984 -2.38% -3.49% -4.55% All 48532 -1.90% -3.01% -4.07% Total Bets The following table shows the winning side of total bets in each game. Total Line Bets in MLB Winner Sample Size Probability Over 11315 46.63% Under 11812 48.68% Push 1139 4.69% Total 24266 100.00% Assuming the player lays 110 every time, the house edge is 6.29% on over bets and 2.38% on under bets. Seldom do casinos have total bets with less juice than 10 cents. Run Line Bets Yes, Marisa Miller is a Giants fan. Unfortunately, my data does not indicate the run line bets. However, I can offer the following tables to help determine the fair run line according to the fair money line (F.M.L.) and total. I used logistic regression to create these tables, which was no easy task. The first table is for away underdogs +1.5 runs. To get the fair money line the other way, on a home favorite -1.5 runs, take the opposite line by multiplying by -1. Fair Run Lines for Away Underdogs +1.5 F.M.L. Total 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 100 -212 -207 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -173 105 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -179 -176 -172 -169 -165 110 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -172 -169 -165 -162 -159 115 -188 -184 -180 -176 -173 -169 -166 -163 -159 -156 -153 120 -181 -177 -174 -170 -167 -163 -160 -157 -154 -150 -147 125 -175 -171 -168 -164 -161 -158 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 130 -169 -165 -162 -159 -156 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -138 135 -164 -160 -157 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133 140 -159 -155 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -137 -135 -132 -129 145 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125 150 -150 -147 -144 -141 -138 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122 155 -146 -143 -140 -137 -134 -131 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119 160 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125 -123 -120 -118 -116 165 -138 -136 -133 -130 -127 -125 -122 -120 -117 -115 -113 170 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -115 -112 -110 175 -132 -129 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -114 -112 -110 -108 180 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 185 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 190 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 195 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101 200 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101 103 210 -114 -112 -110 -108 -105 -103 -101 101 103 105 107 220 -110 -108 -106 -104 -102 100 102 104 107 109 111 230 -107 -105 -103 -101 102 104 106 108 110 112 115 240 -104 -102 101 103 105 107 109 111 114 116 118 250 -101 101 103 106 108 110 112 115 117 119 122 260 102 104 106 109 111 113 115 118 120 123 125 270 105 107 109 111 114 116 118 121 123 126 129 280 107 110 112 114 117 119 121 124 127 129 132 290 110 112 115 117 119 122 124 127 130 132 135 300 112 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138 310 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 133 135 138 141 320 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138 141 144 330 119 122 124 127 130 132 135 138 141 144 147 340 122 124 127 129 132 135 138 140 143 146 149 350 124 126 129 132 134 137 140 143 146 149 152 360 126 128 131 134 137 139 142 145 148 151 154 370 128 131 133 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 157 380 130 133 135 138 141 144 147 150 153 156 159 390 132 135 137 140 143 146 149 152 155 159 162 400 134 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 158 161 164 When you see it, you'll shit bricks. Let's take a look at an example to see how to use the table. On April 6, 2010, the Las Vegas Hilton offered the following bets on the Yankees vs. Red Sox game. As always, the home team is listed last. Yankees vs. Red Sox Team Money Line Total Run Line Yankees 125 9.5 -170 Red Sox -135 150 The fair line on the Yankees would be +130, which can be found by splitting the juice between the two teams. Next, look up the value in the table for +130 and 9.5, which is -152. So fair run line bets would be: Yankees +1.5 -152 Red Sox -1.5 +152 The actual run lines are -170 and +150. Assuming my analysis was correct, the house edge on the Yankees run line would be 4.20% and on the Red Sox it would be 0.79%. By the way, the actual score of the game was Yankees 6, Red Sox 4. The next table shows the fair run lines for home underdogs. The reason for the significant difference between it and the away underdog table above is because it is more valuable to get the extra 1.5 runs on an away team. This is because the game will be over after any winning play by the home team in the 9th or later inning. Thus, there are a lot of games where the home team wins by one run. Fair Run Lines for Home Underdogs +1.5 F.M.L. Total 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 100 -171 -169 -168 -166 -165 -163 -162 -160 -159 -157 -156 105 -164 -162 -161 -159 -158 -156 -155 -153 -152 -150 -149 110 -157 -156 -154 -153 -151 -150 -148 -147 -146 -144 -143 115 -151 -150 -148 -147 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137 120 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137 -136 -135 -134 -132 125 -140 -139 -138 -136 -135 -134 -133 -131 -130 -129 -128 130 -136 -134 -133 -132 -130 -129 -128 -127 -126 -124 -123 135 -131 -130 -129 -127 -126 -125 -124 -123 -122 -120 -119 140 -127 -126 -125 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -117 -116 145 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 150 -120 -119 -117 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 155 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 160 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 165 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100 170 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102 175 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100 101 102 103 104 105 180 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 185 -100 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 190 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 195 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 200 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 117 210 110 111 112 113 114 115 117 118 119 120 121 220 114 115 116 117 119 120 121 122 123 124 126 230 118 119 120 121 123 124 125 126 127 129 130 240 122 123 124 125 127 128 129 130 132 133 134 250 126 127 128 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138 260 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138 139 141 142 270 133 134 135 137 138 139 141 142 143 145 146 280 136 137 139 140 141 143 144 145 147 148 150 290 139 141 142 143 145 146 148 149 150 152 153 300 143 144 145 147 148 150 151 152 154 155 157 310 146 147 149 150 151 153 154 156 157 159 160 320 149 150 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 330 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 340 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 169 170 350 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 168 170 172 173 360 160 162 163 165 167 168 170 171 173 175 176 370 163 165 166 168 169 171 173 174 176 178 179 380 166 167 169 170 172 174 175 177 179 180 182 390 168 170 171 173 175 176 178 180 181 183 185 400 171 172 174 175 177 179 181 182 184 186 188 Alternate Totals It often happens when you want to make an over or under bet in baseball that there are two different totals available. For example, 7.5 and 8. Of course, you have to pay a higher price if you want the half point to work in your favor. The price will depend on whether you are buying or selling an odd or an even number, because in baseball, odd totals are more common than even ones. During the zeros decade (somebody please come up with a term for it), 59.2% of Major League Baseball games ended in an odd total. Hopefully I don't need to explain why. The following tables shows the fair equivalent price to pay for buying an extra half point off either an over or under bet. To use the table, look up the line on the lower of the two lines if betting the under, and the higher if betting the over. Whether you use the second or third column will depend on whether you're looking at an over or under bet, and whether the base line is odd, even, odd +0.5, or even +0.5. To be specific, if you're interested in the under, use the second column for an odd or even +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column. If you're interested in the over, use the second column for an odd or odd +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column. Alternative Totals for Buying a Half Point Market Line Off the Under Odd, Even +0.5 Even, Odd +0.5 Off the Over Odd or Odd +0.5 Even or Even +0.5 -140 -177 -165 -135 -170 -159 -130 -164 -153 -125 -157 -147 -120 -151 -141 -115 -144 -135 -110 -138 -129 -105 -131 -123 100 -125 -117 105 -119 -111 110 -114 -106 115 -109 -102 120 -104 103 125 -100 107 130 104 111 135 108 115 140 112 119 Let's look at an example of how to use the table. In the Astros vs. Marlins game today (Aug. 20, 2010) as I write this, you can get under 7.5 at the Hilton for -105 or under 8 at the MGM for -135. Which is the better bet? 7.5 is an "odd +0.5" number. The -105 row and the "even, odd +0.5" column meet at -123. That means you should be indifferent between betting under 7.5 -105 and under 8 -123. The actual MGM price was -135, so in this example the under 7.5 -105 at the Hilton is the better bet. The next table shows the fair price to pay if you want to buy a half point off of an over bet. For example, in the same Astros vs. Marlins game, you can bet over 7.5 at -115 at the Hilton or over 8 at +115 at the MGM. Which is the better bet? We should use 8 as the base line, because the alterative of 7.5 is a half-point better. So looking at the +115 row and the "even or even +0.5" column we see the fair equivalent is -102. The Hilton price on over 7.5 is -115, which is worse than -102, making over 8 +115 at the MGM the better bet. Let's look at some more examples. Here are some lines from the Braves Vs. Cubs game. Hilton: Over 10 -115, Under 10 -105 MGM: Over 10.5 EV, Under 10.5 -120 If we assume under 10 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 10.5 -123. So the under 10.5 -120 at the MGM is better. If we assume over 10.5 EV to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 10 -117. So the over 10 -115 at the Hilton is better. Next, here are lines from the Bluejays vs Red Sox game. Stations: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 Hilton: Over 8 -125, Under 8 +105 If we assume under 8 +105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 8.5 -111. The under 8.5 -115 at Stations is not as good, so under 8 +105 is the better bet. If we assume over 8.5 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 8 -123. The over 8 -125 at the Hilton is not as good, so the over 8 -105 is the better bet. Awesome jacket. Total Runs, Hits, and Errors Sometimes in the post-season, the casinos will offer an over/under prop on the total combined runs, hits and errors. I noticed there is a fairly linear relationship between the projected total and the actual total of runs, hits and errors. The least-squares regression line for the estimated total runs, hits and errors is 12.45 + 1.817 × t, where t represented the estimated total. The following table shows the estimated and actual total runs, hits and errors according to the projected total runs. Total Combined Runs, Hits and Errors in MLB Total Sample Size Estimated Actual 6 1 23.35 14.00 6.5 71 24.26 24.46 7 610 25.17 24.81 7.5 1635 26.08 26.36 8 2393 26.98 26.74 8.5 4122 27.89 27.80 9 5337 28.80 28.88 9.5 4472 29.71 29.92 10 2395 30.62 30.53 10.5 1736 31.53 31.42 11 747 32.43 32.22 11.5 285 33.34 33.75 12 131 34.25 33.80 12.5 102 35.16 33.61 13 77 36.07 35.97 13.5 55 36.98 36.73 14 47 37.89 35.96 14.5 35 38.79 40.29 15 15 39.70 45.33

Filter this

Hmmph. Apparently here in the office, my favorite /sp/orts and coo/ck/ing forums are considered "pornography" by this stupid filter. That's fine. You can't bring Katie Greene to the ebaums, you bring ebaums to Katie Greene's 16th Parallel.

 Mai Waifu!

Helmet 2, Uni 8

FUCKING A-Q PAI GOW PUSHES AGAINST MY ROYAL FLUSH. ASSHOLE.

PREVIOUSLY ON THE 16th PARALLEL...

"by the way, fyi, the electric eel is a worthless piece of shit. there. i said it."
Oh fuck me, your lady friend got a voice?
Today Was a Good Day

THE FOLLOWING TAKES PLACE BETWEEN 7:00 AM AND 8:00 AM.

EVENTS OCCUR IN REAL TIME.

---

The permalinks above? I put those there because one talks about playing Pai Gow Poker with Maggie the Cat, and the last one talks about the progression I was using on bodog.com which can be modified for craps, yes, but in its original form works very well for Pai Gow Poker. Unless your 30% of losing hands comes fast and furious and knocks you out before any of your 41% of push hands or 29% of winning hands make an appearance.

Pai Gow Poker is a pretty cool game. In no way does skill at poker translate to skill at Pai Gow Poker-- it's all raw, stupid luck. There are some strategies, but like i've told you good 16th Parallel Peons and infrequent 16th Parallel Peon Nyree Minasian, "Doubles triumphs over theory any day of the week."

And speaking of Nyree Minasian, btw, a special thanks to all of Tia Katie's friends who aren't going to read this because they're busy reading other, stupider shit which doesn't even offer any practical analysis on something which they might enjoy, like oh I don't know-- Craps, perchance? No, no, no. Gotta read something on Salon, or about how some chick is running a regression on why dudes aren't calling her back depending on which base she let them get to.

(note from Katie:  in hindsight here in 2010, i wish i had linked to this aforementioned article back in 2005)

What's even better is when one of Tia Katie's friends e-mails him asking him to read some poem he posted on some obscure blog. And fully acknowledges that his 16thP-ing has been very infrequent, but asks Tia Kate to overlook this inequity.

Back to the Pai Gow Poker. All raw, stupid luck I sez...

lucky you, bodog.com...

Pigfuckers. The goddam straight flush didn't win. Not with a 6-4 Low Hand. You like that? You'll love this one...

eff you, bodog.com...

And with that title attribute, I've found a new post title. Also gotta add two older recap posts about Insaniquarium. Check em out, you probably haven't read them. And then go play Insaniquarium.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

Studies Show: You May Be Stupid and Not Even Know It!

(note from katie:  this is an old post stolen in its entirety from AnnA, from AnnA's old blog.  i don't think i read it all the way through in 2005.  don't feel obliged to do so in 2010.)  

Incompetence is bliss, say researchers

BY ERICA GOODE
New York Times

There are many incompetent people in the world. But a Cornell University study has shown that most incompetent people do not know that they are incompetent.

People who do things badly, according to David A. Dunning, a professor of psychology at Cornell, are usually supremely confident of their abilities -- more confident, in fact, than people who do things well.

One reason that the ignorant also tend to be the blissfully self-assured, the researchers believe, is that the skills required for competence often are the same skills necessary to recognize competence.

The incompetent, therefore, suffer doubly, the researchers -- Dunning and Justin Kruger, then a graduate student -- suggested in a paper appearing in the December issue of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

"Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it,'' wrote Kruger, now an assistant professor at the University of Illinois, and
Dunning.

This deficiency in "self-monitoring skills,'' the researchers said, helps explain the tendency of the humor-impaired to persist in telling jokes that are not funny, of day traders to repeatedly jump into the market -- and repeatedly lose out -- and of the politically clueless to continue holding forth at dinner parties on the fine points of campaign strategy.

Some college students, Dunning said, evince a similar blindness: After doing badly on a test, they spend hours in his office, explaining why the answers he suggests for the test questions are wrong.

In a series of studies, Kruger and Dunning tested their theory of incompetence. They found that subjects who scored in the lowest quartile on tests of logic, English grammar and humor were also the most likely to
"grossly overestimate'' how well they had performed.

In all three tests, subjects' ratings of their ability were positively linked to their actual scores. But the lowest-ranked participants showed much greater distortions in their self-estimates.

Aiming high -- real high

Asked to evaluate their performance on the test of logical reasoning, for example, subjects who scored in only the 12th percentile guessed that they had scored in the 62nd percentile and deemed their overall skill at logical reasoning to be at the 68th percentile.

Similarly, subjects who scored at the 10th percentile on the grammar test ranked themselves at the 67th percentile in the ability to "identify grammatically correct standard English'' and estimated their test scores to be at the 61st percentile.

On the humor test, in which participants were asked to rate jokes according to their funniness (subjects' ratings were matched against those of an "expert'' panel of professional comedians), low-scoring subjects were also more apt to have an inflated perception of their skill. But because humor is idiosyncratically defined, the researchers said, the results were less conclusive.

Unlike their unskilled counterparts, the most able subjects in the study, Kruger and Dunning found, were likely to underestimate their own competence. The researchers attributed this to the fact that, in the
absence of information about how others were doing, highly competent subjects assumed that others were performing as well as they were -- a phenomenon psychologists term the "false consensus effect.''

When high-scoring subjects were asked to ``grade'' the grammar tests of their peers, however, they quickly revised their evaluations of their own performance. In contrast, the self-assessments of those who scored badly themselves were unaffected by the experience of grading others; some subjects even further inflated their estimates of their own abilities.

"Incompetent individuals were less able to recognize competence in others,'' the researchers concluded.

In a final experiment, Dunning and Kruger set out to discover if training would help modify the exaggerated self-perceptions of incapable subjects. In fact, a short training session in logical reasoning did improve the
ability of low-scoring subjects to assess their performance realistically, they found.

The findings, the psychologists said, support Thomas Jefferson's assertion that "he who knows best knows how little he knows.''

Such studies are not without critics. David C. Funder, a psychology professor at the University of California-Riverside, for example, said he suspected that most lay people had only a vague idea of the meaning of
``average'' in statistical terms.

But Dunning said his current research and past studies indicated that there were many reasons why people would tend to overestimate their competency and not be aware of it.

Concrete clues

In some cases, Dunning pointed out, an awareness of one's own inability is inevitable: "In a golf game, when your ball is heading into the woods, you know you're incompetent,'' he said.

But in other situations, feedback is absent, or at least more ambiguous; even a humorless joke, for example, is likely to be met with polite laughter. And social norms prevent most people, when faced with incompetence, from blurting out, "You stink!'' -- truthful though this assessment may be.

Tonight, on the 16th Parallel: Katie Greene fucks with your head!

CwTKnockers is here. We were just talking about the season premiere of the FX's The League.  If you watched it, here's my hint for The Game.  (and no, GTFO with "The Game".  it was fun playing the first few months of ebaums...)

Horniness is what she grants you. snap-snap-snap-snap The best part of her new video is the whipped cream. snap Nary a tear was shed when she transitioned into pop music, but... Demons caused her to leave her old genre. Christian music was her specialty. snap-snap-snap-snap Long legs give me a boner. Dykey girls are excited by her.

Holy shit, CwTKnockers got it! I feel bad now that I looked up the answer with minimal effort to figure it out.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

Fuckin' Giants.

Was too busy watching the giants shit on their meager NL West lead to find an old post to recycle. 

So, WTF, more original Katie-shit?  Consider yourselves blessed, 16th Parallel Peons.

I like to consider myself pretty good at the internets.  But somehow, this one slipped through the cracks.  I only saw it for the first time on Web Soup.  And it's fucking awesome.



On another note, I don't think i've ever used the embed html code in a youtube vid before. i don't remember posting youtube shit on the old blog.

I'm all caught up with visiting other people's blogs. About fucking time too.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

Original Content? In my 16th Parallel?

I'm just as shocked as you are.

still mai waifu!

Your good buddy Katie didn't have enough time to hunt down some old posts for recycling.  Turns out that writing something in 2010 is a lot easier than finding old posts from pre-2007 and sanitizing them.

Giants up 1-0 over the Cusb, 2 out in the bottom of the Ninth!

Padres also up over the Dodgers, D-backs leading the Rockies last time i checked...

love always
Katie Greene

ps-  i'm slowly makign the rounds.  i was in the office today, not in the field.  if you've commented, i'm coming!  if i'm following you, i'm getting to your updates!

pps-  giants win 1-0!  5-3 on the putout  giants up 1 game over the pads, behind the Barves 1/2 game for the WC (sorta)

Today Was a Good Day

do you see what i did there?

Normally, I'd have a nice juicy post for you, especially with such a Katie -tastic weekend. But I'm watching my Season 4 DVD of The Shield, so you'll make do with a post that's receiving less than my full attention.

Went to Cache Creek today. Not with Maggie the Cat, though. My grandma called me up, said that she had a coupon for complimentary $20 slot play. Who am I to refuse? Although I was somewhat concerned that I shot my wad of luck on Friday when I turned $38 into $199 on bodog. That's good, yes, but I was afraid that I had used up all my gambling karma.

Staked $140-- because my preferred stake of $138 is just a pain in the ass sometimes-- dipped down to $70, $80 at one point but then made a miraculous recovery to pull even and then up to around $180 or so. Pulled out at $168 because it was time to go home.

Tia Katie, you might be asking if you too share the gambling bug, How can I make a miraculous recovery too? Well, 16th Parallel Peons, I've posted this progression before. If i'm not lazy, I'll find it for you.

<update time=0053>
You're in luck: Feelin' Crappy!

You wanna know how not to gamble like a little girl? Check out the tips in that post right there...
</update>

1-2-3-6-4-8-4-8-...

This gets kinda messy when you get to the six and the eight and you have some wiggle room when you have to place 6 or 8 units on a single line bet. If you're playing with double odds, you can have a 2-unit line bet, and a 4-unit free odds.

Lay 9 to win 5 that we lost our little girl AnnA's comprehension with "free odds". Press it up one unit that the concept of "laying odds" went over his head too. Hope you had your "AnnA Don't Understand Pressing One Unit" bet working. That's just easy money.

So back to the progression. Double free-odds. If you're lucky enough to get to the 6 and win, what do you do with the 4? 2 and 2? Wrong. You can take 2 behind the line with 1 on the line. Your Tia Katie usually changes the progression to ...-3-6-3-6-... Which reminds me, you gotta start off 2-2 and not 1-2. So really, it's

2-2-3-6-3-6-...

Easier said than done.

Lunch at the buffet with grandma, and that's one nice buffet! Maybe even better than some of the nicer Vegas buffets. I liked the Aladdin and the Luxor, but I think this one beat both of them. Ice Cream Sundae bar, good prime rib, potstickers didn't suck. Quite the bargain. Anyway, was thinking about the Katie-progression during lunch, since I saw on the way over that the tables were actually $5 and not $10 like I thought I saw earlier.

Cache Creek is 3-4-5 free odds. Whole Other set of problems. But it lets us get back to 2-2-3-6-4-8-4-8-...

2 - 1 and 1
2 - 1 and 1
3 - 1 and 2
6 - umm, we'll get to that in a second
4 - 1 and 3. Duh. This is where I lost.
8 - Didn't get here. 2 and 6? maybe something related to the 6-unit bet?

For the 6-unit: 1 on the line and max free odds. You may have 2 or 1 units free. You can place the extra unit(s) on the 6 and/or the 8. Press one unit until you Ess-out. "Seven-out" if you're AnnA.

For the 8-unit: Now that I think about it, 1 and 3 and placing 4 units is a huge pain in the ass. Do that if you feel like it, but you might be better off with 2 and 6. No fuss, no muss.

Went shooting after dropping grandma off. Tried the 20-gauge, but some ejector-dealie wasn't ejecting the spent shells like it was supposed to. Manager of the store put some teflon-dealie on it, but I wasn't paying attention. I'll clean the guns tomorrow, as it's well past my bedtime.

The Shield is rad, recommend you check it out if you haven't already. If you're fortunate enough to be in my good graces, ask to borrow my copy. Or invite yourself over. Just lemme clean up a bit first...

Tia Katie

Tia Katie's MLB favorite Giants against his AL favorite Mariners

You are allowed two favorite baseball teams. One from each League. I've been a Giants fan since 1984, 1985? And the nice thing about the bay area is that you can like both bay area teams. Back around 1989 and the Bay Bridge Series you had dual Giants/A's caps. Cool shit.

Although I never adopted the A's as my AL team, not even when I was one town away for college. After college though, when I was moved to Seattle for work, our office was mere minutes away by foot from brand new Safeco Field (and under-construction Seahawk Stadium). I didn't hate the mariners, although I seemed to hate their stupid fans. As much as I hate the holier-than-thou mentality which is the San Francisco Bay Area, it showed in my Giants-fandom. "Seattle isn't a baseball town!" And they weren't. Maybe they still aren't. But in the end, the Mariners fulfilled my baseball urges and I managed to forgive the Washingtards for not being fortunate enough to have been born in Giants Nation.

Also, I liked the Mariners' seafaring blues and greens better than I did Oakland's bright shitty green and thrown-in-as-an-afterthought gold. Nasty looking caps.

So there's my baseball lineage. Giants first, distant second the Mariners, very distant third the A's, and then everybody else. At the bottom of the list? The Red Sox and Yankees, followed by the Angels, and then of course the lowest of the low... the Dodgers. The main thing is yes, you can have two teams. But you must choose one when they do finally meet.

Not sure what used to be here, but this seems to fit.

You can probably imagine my excitement at this interleague series. The G-Men and M's won't meet regular season probably for another 6 years or so, and the Giants probably won't be up in seattle for another 12. Maybe 18. I'll be old by then. Shit.

They'll meet in the Cactus League, maybe in an exhibition the weekend before opening day. Or... <snorts> even in The World Series. Yeah. Right. Like that'll happen anytime soon.

Go Giants,
Katie Greene
Commissioner, 16th Parallel Department of Recreational Athletics (Semi-nude)

Fatigue Quiz!

Found this fatigue quiz on Gorillamask.

Measure Your Level of Fatigue

I went ten questions into it-- got tired of it. Closed the window. Quickly realized I could post about the irony of the situation. I've now invested more time into posting about it on the 16P than I did in the quiz itself.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

Oh fuck me, your lady friend got a voice?

Confused by the post title? No worries, it's somewhat obscure. I would really only expect my Polish engineer carpool-buddy to recognize it, as he's the one who tipped me off about this movie...



Anycrap, went to Cache Creek today with Maggie the Cat. And somehow, I managed to lose more in three or four hours of Cache Creek than three or four days at the Paris in lovely Las Vegas, Nevada.

But Maggie couldn't get over what happened at the Pai Gow Poker table. I myself was somewhat astounded, watching it unfold before my eyes. I mean, heck, the whole beauty of picture IDs is that you can look at the picture and try to match it with a real, live person sitting at the table. Cool shit, huh?

She was the only non-oriental person at the table. Stuck out like a sore thumb.

(note from Katie:  this was originally an audio post in which Maggie the Cat describes a funny incident where the pit boss takes our IDs so we can get player's cards.  maggie is the only white person at the table, everybody else is oriental.  Pit boss brings the cards back, looks at Maggie's ID, asks the table "Who's Maggie?" w/o realizing that she's the only one at the table with an anglicized name.) 

Oh, and fellow oriental patrons of Cache Creek? TRY GODDAM BATHING NEXT TIME. Fuckity-fuck, whenever I bring my grandma to a casino, we're both clean and non-reektastic! Holy Eff, I straight-up left two out of my four tables today because I was smack-dab in somebody's ripe, gamey oriental-stench!

<play cardtype="Race">
Important to note, 16th Parallel Peons: Maggie the Cat's liberal use of "oriental" is naturally condoned and encouraged by this very same politically incorrect Oriental Degenerate Gambler-- although interestingly enough it wasn't my recent usage of the adjective which catalyzed her usage of it. She had already started dabbling with it, but I just helped her along down that path...

We both live in the SF Bay Area, where "Oriental" hasn't been used in quite some time. It pisses off the Chinks, Japs, Gooks, and Gooks.
</play>

But back to the vice at hand. Cache Creek can eat me. What kind of dicks don't grandfather you in when they change their table limits? Jagoffs. I'm going to play at bodog.com right now since I can play $2 craps. Oh, look! Another referral link for AnnA to steal. (long story.  ask about it during the next "ASK KATIE GREENE" post.  --KG) I thank my lucky freaking stars that he gambles like a little girl.

And the gamble-age itself? Well, like I had told infrequent 16th Parallel Peon Nyree Minasian: "Doubles triumphs over theory any day of the week." Tia Katie: Low pair, A-K. Cache Creek: Middle pair, A-K. Copy goes to Cache Creek. Tia Katie out another $25. Flawless play on my part but with shitty cards? Should've stayed in the area and gone shooting... But Maggie did a bit better though. She bought me lunch at In-n-Out. Looked really eff-ing good in that peach/pink dress. Nice shoes. Nice Prada purse.

All my Love,
Tia Katie

So I did the math...

Please take note, 16th Parallel Peons, whenever an engineer (not just one of your engineer 16thP L.A.B.I.A.s) tells you that he has "done the math" or "run the numbers" that you may be in for a fuckload of information which, quite frankly, you do not and will not ever care about.

My original image 404'd.  So here's another one.

Ahem. About which you do not and will not ever care.

But recent forays deeper into the gambling world have led me to the local cardhouses here in the Bay Area. The Casino San Pablo just this past weekend. Lucky Chances Casino a while back, but that was only for the food.

No craps, but they have Pai Gow Poker, which as of late has been my game of choice. Except, it's not exactly pai gow poker, but some weird variation, much like California Craps at Cache Creek and Jackson Rancheria.

Double-Hand Poker plays just like Pai Gow Poker with a few notable differences. The dealers don't play on behalf of the House. Apparently that's illegal in California-land. Instead, some other dummy corporation is set up, they hire players and those people cover all of the bets placed by Joe Schmoe.

The opportunity to be banker rotates (as does the privilege of winning Copies, presumably) like in many other casinos. Pai Gow Poker N00b 16th Peons: Banker wins the Copy (e.g, A-K vs. A-K goes to the Banker).

The major differences in game play (the latter of which will likely dissuade me from ever playing Pai Gow Poker outside of a bona fide casino) are themselves quite simple. The first and foremost, you can bet on other players' hands, and vice versa. At your seat, you'll see that there are boxes numbered 1-10 upon which other players can bet on your hand versus the dealer's hand. Let's say you're sitting at Seat 4, and I'm at Seat 8. I can place a bet on the box marked "8" in front of you, and mangina, I've bet on your hand.

Cool shit? I guess so. If you see somebody heating up, you can bet on his hands too. While this may lead to hurt oriental feelings if somebody sets their hand incorrectly (ahem, AnnA and countless others), I'm not sure if in Double-Hand Poker you're allowed to set your own hand. I didn't get that far.

The last difference in game play-- the dealbreaker, and if you've been waiting for the post title to tie itself in, here ya go-- is the commission. Normal casinos take a 5% commission off of your winnings. Your $5 bet pays $4.75. For each red that you win, you give the house a quarter. Easy shit. With Double-Hand Poker, the commission is $1 for every bet $10-$100, $2 for every $101-$200, and so on and so forth.

Every hand. Win or lose. That's not good, since you're gonna push just over 40% of your hands in Pai Gow Poker. Check out the wizard of odds link above, because you didn't earlier. You want the math? I'll run you through it quickly...

Roughly, you'll push 41%, you'll win 29%, and you'll lose 30%. Don't argue. If you were just about to argue or whine to me that this didn't happen to you when you were playing recently in Vegas, then Get Bent. So if you play 100 hands, you'll push 41, win 29 and lose 30. When you push or lose, you don't pay a comission. But when you win, you'll pay that 5%. If you're betting the $10 minimum, that's 50 cents each of those 29 times, which is $14.50 comission to the house for 100 hands of Pai Gow.

Conversely, if you're playing Double-Hand Poker, 100 hands where 41 push, 29 win and 30 lose will pay a comission of $100. Sure, you'll win at even money, but then that means you're out $110, as opposed to $24.50 above. That's a lot of Monte Cristos at Thunder Valley.

At what point does the $1/hand comission give you more of an edge over the 5% commission? Right around $70 a hand. Five percent on $70 is $3.50, which if you win your statistically ideal 29 times will put your total comission paid at $101.50.

Moral of the Story: My friends suck because none of them like to gamble.

Love always,
Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

ps- Along the lines of "So I did the math..." being one of those opening warning lines which you probably don't want to hear, here are some more! Feel free to add your own in the comments. Or you could follow the flow of the post and post about Pai Gow Poker. Or Craps. Or even Pai Gow itself.

Top Ten Opening Lines You Never Want to Hear

1. The University of California Golden Bears!!! 2. Umm, I got the test results back... 3. Hey, Tia Katie, can we talk in the conference room? this used to be an image of hillary clinton for #4 4. "I do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States" 5. Hi, I'm Corinna, would you like to buy a private dan-- Daddy?!? 6. Leading off for your San Francisco Giants, Marvin Benard! 7. So I told my parents that I spent the night last night... 8. On the mainstage, here is Brunhilda! 9. ATF! Put The Purswader down! 10. I ain't never seen anything like this in my 28 years of being a proctologist.

THE PURSWADER COMETH

The Purswader

<update time="1041">
Yes, the Mossberg 500 Persuader is an actual model, I've just now found out. It's somewhat unfortunate that the nickname I've given to mine sounds exactly alike.

The Purswader (note the spelling) is an allusion to Titus. In the episode "The Protector", you'll see that he has burned the name of his bat onto the barrel-- Purswader.

Hilarity ensues in the television show, now available on DVD. Confusion ensues in the 16thP, as Tia Katie is too lazy/stubborn to choose a new nickname.
</update>

<update time="2211">

Christopher Titus's Purswader

Check out Mossberg's website. It appears to have been revamped over this last weekend. There, you can see pics of the actual Persuaders
</update>

Not much going on at the 16th Parallel

Incidentally, the black chick on the show did have $1,000,000 in her case, but she sold it for $215,000. Ha ha.

disappointing Katie Greene again
8:45:12 PM TiaKatie: watching Deal or No Deal right now 8:45:39 PM TiaKatie: is it wrong to want to see somebody shoot herself in the face on national TV if she loses $1,000,000? 8:46:59 PM TiaKatie: oh she's not shooting herself in the face =(

I've found the future university for my daughters

CwTKnockers went to a Liberty High, and was surprised that I knew his mascot was the Patriot.

We're two grown men, chatting!

9:02 PM CwTKnockers: http://www.liberty.edu/studentaffairs/index.cfm?PID=1378 TiaKatie: go patriots? CwTKnockers: liberty university TiaKatie: yeah i know TiaKatie: no gambling? CwTKnockers: I've found the future university for my daughters TiaKatie: no R rated movies? TiaKatie: no DECEPTION?!? 9:05 PM CwTKnockers: it lists abortion TiaKatie: dude, i like the 30 Reprimands + $500 Fine level! CwTKnockers: that like doubles the prices 9:10 PM TiaKatie: so your daughters can either fail to properly identify themselves twice, or have one abortion CwTKnockers: I guess they don't think abortion is that bad

Are puritanical rules funny? Sure. But then again, the Puritans aren't having around 70% of their children out of wedlock...

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

(postscriptum from Katie:  OK, so Liberty University has since denied public access to their Reprimands and Consequences, but here's pretty much what we were talking about five years ago...  http://www.distributedrepublic.net/archives/2005/07/27/the-ironically-named-liberty-university/)

See? The environment hates people. Don't bother trying to save it.

Shit. What can we say? Next time, just stay in your fucking car.

Would've been cooler if this bird was just playing dead in the hopes of pecking some do-gooder's eyes out.
Woman in Oregon stops to help bird; truck hits, kills her

Personally, I was just excited to read about Fred Meyer.

Police said they couldn't cite a cause of the accident but ruled out alcohol or speed.

Hmmmph. How about, "This chick was a dumbfuck."

How much you wanna bet this dumb chick was the same one who would think nothing more of walking in front of your truck in the rain on a 40mph road without looking. And then getting mad when you slam on your brakes to try to save her useless life. Arrogant, selfish hippies-- all of 'em. More of these people need to die before they start learning about the value of common sense.

all my love,
Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

i wouldn't have such a problem with him if Ocean's Twelve hadn't been such a shitty movie

(note from Katie:  I forget what the context of this post was.  i think the blog owner AnnA was on some political rant about George clooney or something.  doesn't matter.)

Seriously. Making Ocean's Thirteen is about as good an idea as making a Gigli 2. Or Thanksgiving with the Cranks.

Don't get me wrong. Ocean's Eleven (the modern one) was a good movie and one of my favorites. But Ocean's Twelve? It's a suckfest that'll make you want to set your browser's homepage to shitantics. It's such a shitanticky movie, I don't even feel bad spoiling the ending. I'm doing you a service by giving this shit away for free.

OK, I actually do feel bad. Highlight the spoiler box below.

Well, no I don't feel bad. I suppose I want you to see the movie just once. You'll want to take a hammer to your DVD player after the shitty Julia Roberts gag described below, but watch the movie up to that point to see if you can see it coming.

<spoiler sucksbutt="Ocean's Twelve">

Near the end, one of the gags that falls flat on its face and which non-shitanticky 16thPeons can see coming from a mile off-- it's a gag you can tell they were banking on being ranked with the funniest of movie moments in all of filmmaking history-- Julia Roberts' character in the movie, Tess Ocean, is incorporated in a heist by passing her off as... Julia Roberts. What a pukefest. Not even a full-frontal nude scene with Catherine Zeta-Jones herself would've saved this ensemble piece of shit.

</spoiler>

Like I was saying. Ocean's Twelve sucked major dead bear.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

unless by steel you mean WHORE / and by city you mean CITY

This is probably how the 4am Criticism got started. Late at night, somebody was watching a movie, started chatting with somebody about it. Hilarity ensued.

I didn't finish it because I fell asleep last night. Which i'm sure also happened during many an original 4amC.

Tia K

starting to 4am Criticize Flashdance...

12:56 AM TiaK: bought Flashdance @ fry's TiaK: 4.99 TiaK: I like how it's about some Pittsburgh WHORE TiaK: accountant or welder/stripper TiaK: they're all WHORES TiaK: WHORE CITY AnnA: are you gay because you bought Flashdance? TiaK: it's about a hot welder chick TiaK: who's a stripper TiaK: and she gets wet in her stage show TiaK: if that's not straight, i don't know what is AnnA: i dunno, sounds pretty lesbo-riffic to me. 1:00 AM TiaK: ooh here it is TiaK: and what's wrong w/lesbians? TiaK: i like lesbian porn TiaK: she's a hot welder TiaK: not a butch welder TiaK: standby TiaK: ooh, water! TiaK: http://3dcelebs.com/galleries/images/jennifer_beals.jpg AnnA: She's 80'stastic TiaK: movie was made in 1983 AnnA: It's 1am. wtf are you doing up? 1:05 AM TiaK: drank a bit too much coke, too wired to sleep AnnA: I gotta wake up in about 5 hours. I'm in Irvine now. AnnA: in a hotel room TiaK: Irvine! FUCK YEAH AnnA: Dildos! FUCK YEAH! TiaK: ooh, she's wearing steel toed boots TiaK: goddam! TiaK: except she's from pittsburgh TiaK: fuck that AnnA: those pennsylvania whores. TiaK: steel city my ass TiaK: unless by steel you mean WHORE TiaK: and by city you mean CITY AnnA: you drank way too much coke TiaK: eff my poo i'm wide fucking awake TiaK: ooh, She's a maniac! 1:10 AM TiaK: she's dancing like she's never danced before TiaK: welcome to Whore City, Pennsylvania! TiaK: WHORE CITY AnnA: ok, dude...I'm going to bed. AnnA: and you can't stop me. TiaK: oh yes i fucking can as long as i have power in my cell phone TiaK: get some rest AnnA: haha 1:15 AM AnnA: http://gorillamask.net/mssc.shtml