So, giants win or padres loss, and the Giants win the NL West outright. And really, it's not a matter of "or" since the Padres are in town.| Giants vs. Padres | |||
| Team | Money Line | Total | Run Line |
| Padres | +143 | 6.5 | +1.5 (-165) |
| Giants | -158 | -1.5 (+145) | |
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| don't remember why i saved this. but here it is anyway. |
Betting Major League BaseballIntroduction
Source of Data Fun FactsThe following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors, and bases from 2000 to 2009.
Notes 1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding. Following are some records from the "zeros" decade.
 Money Line BetsThe following table shows the expected return on money line bets, according to every combination of home or away and favorite, pick or underdog. The table is crossed by whether the sports book uses a 10-cent, 15-cent or 20-cent line. For those unfamiliar with the term, a 10-cent line, for example, means the lines on the two teams are usually 10 points apart — for example +140 and -150. It is not a typo that the table shows a player advantage for home underdogs of 2.07% against a 10-cent line. This may be partially due to a sampling error.
Total Bets  The following table shows the winning side of total bets in each game.
Assuming the player lays 110 every time, the house edge is 6.29% on over bets and 2.38% on under bets. Seldom do casinos have total bets with less juice than 10 cents. Run Line Bets
The first table is for away underdogs +1.5 runs. To get the fair money line the other way, on a home favorite -1.5 runs, take the opposite line by multiplying by -1.
Let's take a look at an example to see how to use the table. On April 6, 2010, the Las Vegas Hilton offered the following bets on the Yankees vs. Red Sox game. As always, the home team is listed last.
 Yankees +1.5 -152 Red Sox -1.5 +152 The actual run lines are -170 and +150. Assuming my analysis was correct, the house edge on the Yankees run line would be 4.20% and on the Red Sox it would be 0.79%. By the way, the actual score of the game was Yankees 6, Red Sox 4. The next table shows the fair run lines for home underdogs. The reason for the significant difference between it and the away underdog table above is because it is more valuable to get the extra 1.5 runs on an away team. This is because the game will be over after any winning play by the home team in the 9th or later inning. Thus, there are a lot of games where the home team wins by one run.
Alternate Totals To use the table, look up the line on the lower of the two lines if betting the under, and the higher if betting the over. Whether you use the second or third column will depend on whether you're looking at an over or under bet, and whether the base line is odd, even, odd +0.5, or even +0.5. To be specific, if you're interested in the under, use the second column for an odd or even +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column. If you're interested in the over, use the second column for an odd or odd +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column.
Let's look at an example of how to use the table. In the Astros vs. Marlins game today (Aug. 20, 2010) as I write this, you can get under 7.5 at the Hilton for -105 or under 8 at the MGM for -135. Which is the better bet? 7.5 is an "odd +0.5" number. The -105 row and the "even, odd +0.5" column meet at -123. That means you should be indifferent between betting under 7.5 -105 and under 8 -123. The actual MGM price was -135, so in this example the under 7.5 -105 at the Hilton is the better bet. The next table shows the fair price to pay if you want to buy a half point off of an over bet. For example, in the same Astros vs. Marlins game, you can bet over 7.5 at -115 at the Hilton or over 8 at +115 at the MGM. Which is the better bet? We should use 8 as the base line, because the alterative of 7.5 is a half-point better. So looking at the +115 row and the "even or even +0.5" column we see the fair equivalent is -102. The Hilton price on over 7.5 is -115, which is worse than -102, making over 8 +115 at the MGM the better bet. Let's look at some more examples. Here are some lines from the Braves Vs. Cubs game. Hilton: Over 10 -115, Under 10 -105 MGM: Over 10.5 EV, Under 10.5 -120 If we assume under 10 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 10.5 -123. So the under 10.5 -120 at the MGM is better. If we assume over 10.5 EV to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 10 -117. So the over 10 -115 at the Hilton is better. Next, here are lines from the Bluejays vs Red Sox game. Stations: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 Hilton: Over 8 -125, Under 8 +105 If we assume under 8 +105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 8.5 -111. The under 8.5 -115 at Stations is not as good, so under 8 +105 is the better bet. If we assume over 8.5 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 8 -123. The over 8 -125 at the Hilton is not as good, so the over 8 -105 is the better bet.
Total Runs, Hits, and ErrorsSometimes in the post-season, the casinos will offer an over/under prop on the total combined runs, hits and errors. I noticed there is a fairly linear relationship between the projected total and the actual total of runs, hits and errors. The least-squares regression line for the estimated total runs, hits and errors is 12.45 + 1.817 × t, where t represented the estimated total. The following table shows the estimated and actual total runs, hits and errors according to the projected total runs.
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Oh fuck me, your lady friend got a voice?| lucky you, bodog.com... |
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| eff you, bodog.com... |
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| do you see what i did there? |
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| My original image 404'd. So here's another one. |
| Top Ten Opening Lines You Never Want to Hear | ||
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| 1. The University of California Golden Bears!!! 2. Umm, I got the test results back... 3. Hey, Tia Katie, can we talk in the conference room?
4. "I do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States" 5. Hi, I'm Corinna, would you like to buy a private dan-- Daddy?!? 6. Leading off for your San Francisco Giants, Marvin Benard! 7. So I told my parents that I spent the night last night... 8. On the mainstage, here is Brunhilda! 9. ATF! Put The Purswader down! 10. I ain't never seen anything like this in my 28 years of being a proctologist. |
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| Here. Here's your goddam Berkeley diversity right here. [grabs crotch, shakes] |
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| 10:47 PM TiaKatie: updated 16thP post w/a pic RCCBrenda: hahah RCCBrenda: the whole game i was wearing a longhorns jersey and cap TiaKatie: GOOD RCCBrenda: yeah dude TiaKatie: i don't care about pac-10 representation RCCBrenda: even though i'm starting classes at $C on monday, i know my horns would win TiaKatie: i hate $C RCCBrenda: hook 'em! TiaKatie: hook me! RCCBrenda: you are SOGGY TiaKatie: i will be the hookee TiaKatie: and the longhorn cheerleaders can be the hook... ers TiaKatie: YESH RCCBrenda: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA RCCBrenda: ROFL RCCBrenda: OMG RCCBrenda: that was too funny RCCBrenda: post this on the 16th parallel RCCBrenda: j/k j/k TiaKatie: OK good 10:50 PM TiaKatie: i'm feeling lazy tonight TiaKatie: too much fucking work to put that pic up already TiaKatie: i just wanna listen to the radio RCCBrenda: it's coo |
| 10:43 PM TiaKatie: http://katiegreene13vice.blogspot.com/2006/01/you-cant-spell-betting-on-college.html  ProfVivianCanapa: im so fucking madProfVivianCanapa: i cant believe texas won ProfVivianCanapa: fuck this shit TiaKatie: oh you're from SoCal, huh? ProfVivianCanapa: NO ProfVivianCanapa: dood ProfVivianCanapa: How can you forgive texas?!?! TiaKatie: i'm sorry... i cannot in good conscience cheer for $C ProfVivianCanapa: what?!?!?! ProfVivianCanapa: after what TEXAS DID TO US LAST YEAR!!!??! TiaKatie: dude, we did that to ourselves TiaKatie: our ranking was inflated ProfVivianCanapa: NO ProfVivianCanapa: fuck that shit ProfVivianCanapa: i dont give a shit ProfVivianCanapa: i dont root for SC ProfVivianCanapa: but i fucking HATE texas TiaKatie: OK good ProfVivianCanapa: with a passion ProfVivianCanapa: HATE ProfVivianCanapa: HATE ProfVivianCanapa: HATE ProfVivianCanapa: fuck mack brown ProfVivianCanapa: i cannot believe you are not against Texas TiaKatie: i just like george w. bush 10:45 PM TiaKatie: and bay aryans up here hate texas becasue of that TiaKatie: and even then, if i did hate texas, i wouldn't hate them as much as U$C ProfVivianCanapa: but USC represents the pac10 TiaKatie: ahh still TiaKatie: i was a golden bear before i knew what the pac-10 was TiaKatie: and cal was there before the pac10 ProfVivianCanapa: they were our only hope ProfVivianCanapa: to give the pac 10 any credibility ProfVivianCanapa: ppl have been doggin the pac10 ProfVivianCanapa: for so long ProfVivianCanapa: dogging oregon's loss TiaKatie: i guess i don't really care about pac-10 credibility... TiaKatie: i stopped caring after 1) we almost lost to BYU and 2) i couldn't place bets on tonight's game on bodog.com ProfVivianCanapa: hHAhaHAhaH! 10:50 PM TiaKatie: fucking visa... won't let me charge my account for offshore betting TiaKatie: whatta bunch of pigfuckers ProfVivianCanapa: HAHAHHAA! TiaKatie: and you can't spell pigfuckers w/o U$C ProfVivianCanapa: fuck TEXAS! ProfVivianCanapa: AARGH~! |
This sounds good! Except 1) doesn't mention what to do about your free odds bet and 2) oh how i wish winning at craps was as easy as writing 1-2-3-6-4-blah-blah-blah. Sure, memorize your system, but like I was telling infrequent 16Peon Kahlid Sheik Bro-hammad about backgammon once, "Doubles triumphs over theory any day of the week." This no different. Your foolproof money management system may look great on paper but unfortunately depends on some choadstain hitting point after point. And by the time you've hit a hot streak, you're already two sheets to the wind and very Happy to Be There because that cute cocktail waitress keeps bringing you Nuts & Berries. Good Morning, Las Vegas!!!
Pass Line Progression When you win your first pass line bet, you get paid one unit. Let those ride. Your second win will get you 4 units. Take 1 unit off, and let the other 3 ride. You just got back your original bet, so now you're playing with free money.
A third win will give you 6 units, let these ride. A fourth win gives you 12 units. Now take 8 units off and let the 4 remaining ride. You now have an 8 unit profit with 4 units still on the table. If you win again, let all 8 units ride. Then take back another 8 and let the 4 ride.
Continue in this fashion until you lose. Just remember this progression of units to bet: 1-2-3-6-4-8-4-8-repeat 4-8. Craps is a game of cycles, when you're in on a winning cycle, you need money on the table to win. But eventually, all good things come to an end, so take some profits down whenever you have more than 8 units on the table.
This is similar to the earlier March post He who lives by the dice shall perish by the dice. And I was curious about pressing the Place 6 and Place 8 bets, so i set up a spreadsheet that tells me what you'll win pressing various amounts and also a sample number of rolls which tracks the number of consecutive win-scenarios. So far, so sucktastic. I've hit two eights in a row before the seven.
Numbers Progression This same strategy applies to bets placed on the "numbers." This is called "pressing" your bet. To press means to add the previous win to your bet. For example, you say to the dealer "place the number 9 for $5." Now the shooter rolls a 9 (before a 7), you win $7 in profit. Now say to the dealer, "Press it up." The dealer will put another $5 on the number 9, and gives you $2 in profit. So you now have $10 on the number 9. If the shooter rolls another 9, you'll win $14 in profit.
So what do you do now? Press it up again. Another $5 will go on the number 9, and you'll receive $9 in your pocket. Let's recap; after the number 9 was rolled twice (before a 7), you have $15 still on the table riding on the number 9, plus you have $11 in your pocket. Not bad for an initial $5 bet. You can, and should, place money on all the numbers if you want to win, or at least on the 6 and 8 (you have the best odds on winning with 6's and 8's). You can see how quickly it will add up, if you get a hot shooter. Or how quickly you can lose, if the table is cold.
Odds are 5 to 1 that i'll end up at an indian casino this weekend. Any takers?
Rule 1: Never reach into any portion of the layout except those areas labeled Pass Line, Don't Pass, Field, Come, or Don't Come.
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Rule 3: For bets the dealer must place for you, give explicit instructions as to how much you are betting and the bet(s) you wish to make.
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Rule 6: Make all of your bets while the dice are in the middle (between the stickman and the boxman).
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Rule 7: Whether placing a bet yourself or giving chips to the dealer to place on your behalf, place your chips directly in front of you.
Dealers have only two eyes. If they do not see who places a Come bet, for example, they assume the bet belongs to the player closest to it, resolving ambiguous positions by asking the players whose bet it is. This can lead to disputes when two players claim the same bet. Disputes not only slow down the game but also create tension. Tension makes the game less enjoyable for everyone.
Dealers cannot take money or chips out of your hand. Therefore, when giving a dealer chips for a bet he must place (e.g., odds on a Come bet) put those chips not only in front of you but also on a line separating two areas of the layout (e.g., between Come and Field, but definitely not between Come and the point number boxes -- see Rule 1) while stating what bet you wish to make. Should the dealer forget to reposition your chips their ambiguous placement will certainly be questioned by at least one crew member, at which time you can restate your wishes.
An obvious exception to this rule are prop bets, those booked by the stickman. For these bets get the stickman's attention, then call out how much and where while tossing him your chips. The image of a stickman disappearing in a hail of chips to a cacophony of bet calls may bring a chuckle to players; it is far less humorous on the receiving end.
Rule 8: Listen to what a dealer tells you, especially if you have asked him a question.
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Rule 9: Do not color up (exchange lower denomination chips for higher denomination chips) unless you are sure you will not need the lower denomination chips, or you are leaving the table.
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Rule 10: When pressing or parlaying a winning place, buy, or prop bet, announce your intentions as the dealer is about to pay you.
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| Pai Gow, 9-High! |
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