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Thursday, October 7, 2010

GIANTS WIN! GO CHEW ON THAT, ATLANTA!

gotta get to bed, but a quick post about the G-men...  Tim Lincecum holds the Barves to 2 hits, strikes out 14 in 9 innings of work!  Giants lead the series 1-0


And now that i'm all Fired Up and happy about the Giants, time to take myself back down to earth.  Time to prepare myself for the inevitable abortion that is Giants baseball.  Best way to prepare one's self for doom and gloom and disappointment and justified feelings of suicide? 

Dragonite Dad.










On the Arcade League and the Designated Hitter

In the aftermath of Halladay's no-hitter last night (and yes, we're dead if we manage to make it past the Barves), somebody posted a thread that asked why the NL was such shit, if Halladay was able to pitch a perfect game and a no-hitter in the same season in the National League-- never having done so in the Arcade League.

OP may have been trolling, yes.  But for the sake of conversation I myself think the DH is retarded.  Nine men field, nine men bat.  How hard is that?

I'm pretty sure I read a while back that the AL's batting average only improved negligibly. And now, with the help of baseball-almanac.com, we can prove it here in 2010.

Let's look at 1973, when this abortion of an idea became the law of the (Arcade League) land.

Arcade League batting average:  .25941 (from League by League Totals for Batting Average)
Arcade League total At-Bats:  62,276 (from League by League Totals for At-Bats")

This gives us a total number of hits in AL games:  62,276 * .25941 = 16,155

Here's where the guess work comes in.  In 1972, the AL batting average was .239.  For simplicity's sake, let's say that the DH rule translated into an improvement in BA of .020

We can skip over some steps here, but let's take the somewhat longer route.  If the Arcade League hit .239 in 1973, then on 62,276 ABs, that translates to 14,884 hits (presumably w/o the DH).

Subtract that from the 16,155 from above, and we see that the DH produced an extra 1271 hits.  Divided by the 12 teams in the 1973 Arcade League, each team got an extra 100 hits that year.

Spread out over a 162-game season, that's an extra hit every 1.62 games.  That sucks.

Now that we've proven it with math, here are some comments from various posters in the imageboard/forum i like to frequent...
AL = Checkers
NL = Chess

Everyone knows this.
This reminded me of the line from Training Day.

why do they force people like catchers and other infielders to bat? They should just have a DH for the whole infield


or maybe make it like the NFL, where you have 2 complete teams, one to field and one to bat, then a roster with 27 pitchers, the starters go 3 innings, a separate middle reliever for innings 4-8 and then 3 closers to each get an out in the ninth


baseball would be way better
hint:  he's being sarcastic...

AL should just switch to two entirely different teams, like NFL football.


One set bats, the other set fields.
hint:  he too is being sarcastic

Neither the DH and the AL Pitcher are baseball players. They're hitters and pitchers.


AL shouldn't be called baseball.
OK, this guy isn't kidding.  I'm inclined to agree.

Watching the Giants take on the Barves tonight.  I might even open a chat room for some potentially entertaining 16thP posts, if there's interest in that sort of thing... (UPDATE:  I'm following along in an in-game thread on a certain /sp/orts forum with a bunch of Barves fans.  Come on in and troll.)

Katie Greene
Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking
Commissioner, 16th Parallel Department of Recreational Athletics (Semi-nude)

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

more mestball? you got it

I have some gnatsball for tomorrow when gnats/barves actually starts...  and WTF is up with a first pitch of 6:37? 

Monday, October 4, 2010

WE NL WEST NOW

Just a quick post to break the fifth wall and rejoice that we're in the playoffs for the first time since 2003!

Callback to previous post:  hope you didn't put your money on the giants last friday.  they crapped it up.

Katie Greene
Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking
Commissioner, 16th Parallel Department of Recreational Athletics (Semi-nude)

Friday, October 1, 2010

Giants' Magic Number: 1

G-men won yesterday and the Pods lost, so the Magic Number is down to 1!  "What does this mean to me, Katie?  I'm just a simple 16thP Peon with no ties to San Francisco!"  you might find yourself exclaiming.  Well, Peon, it's really very simple.  A single giants win or a single padres loss means that the San Francisco Giants are mathematically destined to win the NL West.

(Conversely and more commonly, that is normally phrased as "the Padres are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention".  My phrasing is special because it is
>implying that the giants will try to find a way to unclinch the NL West title
)

So, giants win or padres loss, and the Giants win the NL West outright.  And really, it's not a matter of "or" since the Padres are in town.

tl;dr giants beat padres either tonight, tomorrow, or sunday and they win the NL West

OK, as we all like money (that's why they call it "money"), and may even have started up a quasi-blog for the express purpose of making some measly amount of money, I'll try to boil down the previous post in terms of practical application to sports betting.  Over a series of posts.

Here's what bodog.com has to say about the Giants-Padres tonight


table lovingly stolen from previous post

Giants vs. Padres
Team Money Line Total Run Line
Padres +143 6.5 +1.5 (-165)
Giants-158 -1.5 (+145)


So the first type of bet is the Money Line Bet.  This is a simple "who's gonna win" bet.  Pick a team, put some money down, and if you're right you get your money back plus some more money.  It's awesome.

But first things fucking first:  "How much money exactly, Katie?  Does my ten bucks win me ten bucks?"  Well, unfortunately no.  That would make things (and by "things" i mean you winning money) too easy.  Not being sarcastic there.  Aww crap, i guess we need to explain basic statistics before jumping into odds.  If you were to bet a dollar on flipping a coin heads or tails Fuck it, that's gonna take fucking forever.  You see the +143 and the -158 under "Money Line"?  That means if you bet $100 on the Padres and they win, you will get your $100 back and an extra $143.  Conversely, if you bet $158 on the Giants and they win, you'll win your original $158 and an extra $100. 

The next type of bet is the Total.  You may have heard of this before, it's the "Over/Under".  In this case, the O/U is 6.5.  In this bet, you're betting on whether the total number of runs scored by the giants and the padres (yes, just add them together) is going to be either Over 6.5 or Under 6.5.  Final Score:  Giants 3, Padres 1?  The Under wins.  Final score: Giants 7, Padres 2?  The Over wins.

"How do you score 0.5 of a run, Katie?" You can't.  This is just to ensure that there are no pushes.  Yes, they could've said 6.25 or 6.90 or 6.1415926535897932384626433832795028841972 and the result would've been the same. 


"How much does $100 win me, Katie?"  Good question.  Glad to see that some of my mindless blather is actually important every once in a while.  The O/U bets are usually paid at -110.  Which means, You bet $110, You win $100.  (or $11 and $10, or $5.50 and $5).  Sometimes there are different payouts for the Over versus the Under, so be sure to check.  Without going back to bodog to confirm, i think tonight's giants/padres actually has different payouts.

The last type of bet is the Run Line.  It's similar to the "spread", in case you're familiar with that term.  "Well, I'm not, fucker.  Explain."  Well fuck you.  I'm trying to do you a favor here.  "I'm sorry, fucker Katie.  Please explain."  This deserves a special mention, so i'll do a little HTMLing right here...

The "Spread" (also, the "line") on a game is designed to make both propositions of the bet equally attractive to bettors.  Would you bet on the 49ers versus a pee wee football team?  No?  Then you're fucking retarded for not reading the question.  Of course you would bet on that game-- taking the 49ers.

OK seriously, if you were gonna bet on football team A versus football team B and knew that football team A was awesome and would only give up a loss to football team B once every ten years or so, what would convince you to bet on B?  Would you bet on B if B was given an extra touchdown?  Two extra touchdowns?  Obviously this can't happen in the actual game itself, but for betting purposes, you can spot a poor team some points, or even handicap a good team by taking some of their points away.  This is the spread.

Practical example:  Let's take two teams I hate who are playing each other this weekend, Stanfurd University and the University of Oregon.  Go to bodog.com and it tells us Stanfurd +7, Oregon -7.  That means "give stanfurd an extra 7 points, or take 7 points away from oregon".

Final score:  Oregon 35, Stanfurd 21?  OK, add 7 points to the 'Furd and that becomes 35-28 oregon over stanfurd, and so a bet on Oregon wins.  Oregon "beats the spread".

Final Score:  Stanfurd 31, Oregon 10?  Not that you need to, but add 7 to stanfurd... 38-10 stanfurd beats oregon.  hope you bet on the cardinal.

Final Score:  Oregon 21, Stanfurd 20?  OK, here's where it gets interesting.  You can see that Oregon wins the game IRL.  but in terms of the spread, the effective score is now 27-21 Stanfurd.  Stanfurd has "beat the spread" and hopefully you had your money there.  You understand the concept?  Can you extrapolate reasons why the spread might move one way or another?  OK good, back to baseball...

don't remember why i saved this.  but here it is anyway.
The Run Line which we were originally discussing is similar to a spread in that a team is spotted 1.5 runs.  Wagers are then paid off accordingly.  In our example, the Padres get 1.5 runs, betting $165 to win $100.  The Giants give up 1.5 runs, betting $100 to win $145. 

So with the information in hand thus far on the money line and the run line for tonight's game, can you see why Vegas thinks that the giants will win tonight, but probably not by more than one run?  And then given
the O/U of 6.5 runs, maybe a 4-3 final score or a 3-2 score? 

Shit, this is gonna take fucking forever to break down that post from the Wizard of Odds.  In any case, this might be enough for you to wet your beaks for now.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Giants' Magic Number: 3


Was just going to put up some random images,but instead i'll put up some gambling information (which i stole from Wizard of Odds) and sprinkle images throughout in humorous fashion.  I can't guarantee that the pics will be topical.
Katie Greene
Chairman, 16th Parallel Gaming Commission and House Gaming Control Board


Betting Major League Baseball

Last update: Aug. 21, 2010

Introduction


The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows.


  • Money line: Bet on which team will win.
  • Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12.
  • Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team.


Source of Data


The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 10 years encompassing the 2000 to 2009 seasons. The data was purchased at sportsbettingdatabases.com. I had to remove some games for lack of information, and I corrected many typographical errors. Basically, I felt the data was a bit rough, so please take my analysis below with a grain of salt.



Fun Facts


The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors, and bases from 2000 to 2009.











MLB Averages 2000-2009
Item Away Home Total1
Runs 4.68 4.83 9.52
Hits 9.17 9.05 18.22
Errors 0.65 0.63 1.29
Bases 15.65 15.59 31.23


Notes

1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.


Following are some records from the "zeros" decade.





Money Line Bets


The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, according to every combination of home or away and favorite, pick or underdog. The table is crossed by whether the sports book uses a 10-cent, 15-cent or 20-cent line. For those unfamiliar with the term, a 10-cent line, for example, means the lines on the two teams are usually 10 points apart — for example +140 and -150.

It is not a typo that the table shows a player advantage for home underdogs of 2.07% against a 10-cent line. This may be partially due to a sampling error.











Money Line Bets in MLB
Bet on Sample Size 10-cent Line 15-cent Line 20-cent Line
Home favorite 15797 -1.81% -2.92% -3.99%
Home dog 7977 2.07% 0.92% -0.19%
Home pick 492 0.00% -1.13% -2.22%
Away favorite 7977 -4.94% -6.02% -7.05%
Away dog 15797 -1.88% -2.99% -4.05%
Away pick 492 -4.76% -5.84% -6.87%
All home 24266 -0.84% -1.97% -3.04%
All away 24266 -3.17% -4.27% -5.32%
All favorite 23774 -2.79% -3.89% -4.94%
All dog 23774 -0.55% -1.68% -2.76%
All pick 984 -2.38% -3.49% -4.55%
All 48532 -1.90% -3.01% -4.07%




Total Bets





The following table shows the winning side of total bets in each game.









Total Line Bets in MLB
Winner Sample Size Probability
Over 11315 46.63%
Under 11812 48.68%
Push 1139 4.69%
Total 24266 100.00%


Assuming the player lays 110 every time, the house edge is 6.29% on over bets and 2.38% on under bets. Seldom do casinos have total bets with less juice than 10 cents.


Run Line Bets


Yes, Marisa Miller is a Giants fan.
Unfortunately, my data does not indicate the run line bets. However, I can offer the following tables to help determine the fair run line according to the fair money line (F.M.L.) and total. I used logistic regression to create these tables, which was no easy task.

The first table is for away underdogs +1.5 runs. To get the fair money line the other way, on a home favorite -1.5 runs, take the opposite line by multiplying by -1.










Fair Run Lines for Away Underdogs +1.5
F.M.L. Total
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12
100 -212 -207 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -173
105 -203 -199 -195 -191 -187 -183 -179 -176 -172 -169 -165
110 -195 -191 -187 -183 -180 -176 -172 -169 -165 -162 -159
115 -188 -184 -180 -176 -173 -169 -166 -163 -159 -156 -153
120 -181 -177 -174 -170 -167 -163 -160 -157 -154 -150 -147
125 -175 -171 -168 -164 -161 -158 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142
130 -169 -165 -162 -159 -156 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -138
135 -164 -160 -157 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133
140 -159 -155 -152 -149 -146 -143 -140 -137 -135 -132 -129
145 -154 -151 -148 -145 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125
150 -150 -147 -144 -141 -138 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122
155 -146 -143 -140 -137 -134 -131 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119
160 -142 -139 -136 -133 -131 -128 -125 -123 -120 -118 -116
165 -138 -136 -133 -130 -127 -125 -122 -120 -117 -115 -113
170 -135 -132 -130 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -115 -112 -110
175 -132 -129 -127 -124 -122 -119 -117 -114 -112 -110 -108
180 -129 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105
185 -126 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103
190 -124 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101
195 -121 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101
200 -119 -116 -114 -112 -109 -107 -105 -103 -101 101 103
210 -114 -112 -110 -108 -105 -103 -101 101 103 105 107
220 -110 -108 -106 -104 -102 100 102 104 107 109 111
230 -107 -105 -103 -101 102 104 106 108 110 112 115
240 -104 -102 101 103 105 107 109 111 114 116 118
250 -101 101 103 106 108 110 112 115 117 119 122
260 102 104 106 109 111 113 115 118 120 123 125
270 105 107 109 111 114 116 118 121 123 126 129
280 107 110 112 114 117 119 121 124 127 129 132
290 110 112 115 117 119 122 124 127 130 132 135
300 112 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138
310 115 117 120 122 125 127 130 133 135 138 141
320 117 120 122 125 127 130 132 135 138 141 144
330 119 122 124 127 130 132 135 138 141 144 147
340 122 124 127 129 132 135 138 140 143 146 149
350 124 126 129 132 134 137 140 143 146 149 152
360 126 128 131 134 137 139 142 145 148 151 154
370 128 131 133 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 157
380 130 133 135 138 141 144 147 150 153 156 159
390 132 135 137 140 143 146 149 152 155 159 162
400 134 136 139 142 145 148 151 154 158 161 164

When you see it, you'll shit bricks.

Let's take a look at an example to see how to use the table. On April 6, 2010, the Las Vegas Hilton offered the following bets on the Yankees vs. Red Sox game. As always, the home team is listed last.









Yankees vs. Red Sox
Team Money Line Total Run Line
Yankees 125 9.5 -170
Red Sox -135 150


The fair line on the Yankees would be +130, which can be found by splitting the juice between the two teams. Next, look up the value in the table for +130 and 9.5, which is -152. So fair run line bets would be:


Yankees +1.5 -152

Red Sox -1.5 +152

The actual run lines are -170 and +150. Assuming my analysis was correct, the house edge on the Yankees run line would be 4.20% and on the Red Sox it would be 0.79%.

By the way, the actual score of the game was Yankees 6, Red Sox 4.


The next table shows the fair run lines for home underdogs. The reason for the significant difference between it and the away underdog table above is because it is more valuable to get the extra 1.5 runs on an away team. This is because the game will be over after any winning play by the home team in the 9th or later inning. Thus, there are a lot of games where the home team wins by one run.










Fair Run Lines for Home Underdogs +1.5
F.M.L. Total
7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12
100 -171 -169 -168 -166 -165 -163 -162 -160 -159 -157 -156
105 -164 -162 -161 -159 -158 -156 -155 -153 -152 -150 -149
110 -157 -156 -154 -153 -151 -150 -148 -147 -146 -144 -143
115 -151 -150 -148 -147 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137
120 -145 -144 -143 -141 -140 -139 -137 -136 -135 -134 -132
125 -140 -139 -138 -136 -135 -134 -133 -131 -130 -129 -128
130 -136 -134 -133 -132 -130 -129 -128 -127 -126 -124 -123
135 -131 -130 -129 -127 -126 -125 -124 -123 -122 -120 -119
140 -127 -126 -125 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -117 -116
145 -123 -122 -121 -120 -119 -118 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112
150 -120 -119 -117 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109
155 -116 -115 -114 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106
160 -113 -112 -111 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103
165 -110 -109 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100
170 -108 -107 -106 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102
175 -105 -104 -103 -102 -101 -100 101 102 103 104 105
180 -103 -102 -101 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107
185 -100 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109
190 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112
195 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114
200 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 117
210 110 111 112 113 114 115 117 118 119 120 121
220 114 115 116 117 119 120 121 122 123 124 126
230 118 119 120 121 123 124 125 126 127 129 130
240 122 123 124 125 127 128 129 130 132 133 134
250 126 127 128 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138
260 129 130 132 133 134 136 137 138 139 141 142
270 133 134 135 137 138 139 141 142 143 145 146
280 136 137 139 140 141 143 144 145 147 148 150
290 139 141 142 143 145 146 148 149 150 152 153
300 143 144 145 147 148 150 151 152 154 155 157
310 146 147 149 150 151 153 154 156 157 159 160
320 149 150 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164
330 152 153 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167
340 155 156 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 169 170
350 158 159 161 162 164 165 167 168 170 172 173
360 160 162 163 165 167 168 170 171 173 175 176
370 163 165 166 168 169 171 173 174 176 178 179
380 166 167 169 170 172 174 175 177 179 180 182
390 168 170 171 173 175 176 178 180 181 183 185
400 171 172 174 175 177 179 181 182 184 186 188




Alternate Totals



It often happens when you want to make an over or under bet in baseball that there are two different totals available. For example, 7.5 and 8. Of course, you have to pay a higher price if you want the half point to work in your favor. The price will depend on whether you are buying or selling an odd or an even number, because in baseball, odd totals are more common than even ones. During the zeros decade (somebody please come up with a term for it), 59.2% of Major League Baseball games ended in an odd total. Hopefully I don't need to explain why. The following tables shows the fair equivalent price to pay for buying an extra half point off either an over or under bet.

To use the table, look up the line on the lower of the two lines if betting the under, and the higher if betting the over. Whether you use the second or third column will depend on whether you're looking at an over or under bet, and whether the base line is odd, even, odd +0.5, or even +0.5. To be specific, if you're interested in the under, use the second column for an odd or even +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column. If you're interested in the over, use the second column for an odd or odd +0.5 base number, otherwise use the third column.












Alternative Totals for Buying a Half Point
Market Line Off the Under
Odd, Even +0.5 Even, Odd +0.5
Off the Over
Odd or Odd +0.5 Even or Even +0.5
-140 -177 -165
-135 -170 -159
-130 -164 -153
-125 -157 -147
-120 -151 -141
-115 -144 -135
-110 -138 -129
-105 -131 -123
100 -125 -117
105 -119 -111
110 -114 -106
115 -109 -102
120 -104 103
125 -100 107
130 104 111
135 108 115
140 112 119


Let's look at an example of how to use the table. In the Astros vs. Marlins game today (Aug. 20, 2010) as I write this, you can get under 7.5 at the Hilton for -105 or under 8 at the MGM for -135. Which is the better bet? 7.5 is an "odd +0.5" number. The -105 row and the "even, odd +0.5" column meet at -123. That means you should be indifferent between betting under 7.5 -105 and under 8 -123. The actual MGM price was -135, so in this example the under 7.5 -105 at the Hilton is the better bet.

The next table shows the fair price to pay if you want to buy a half point off of an over bet. For example, in the same Astros vs. Marlins game, you can bet over 7.5 at -115 at the Hilton or over 8 at +115 at the MGM. Which is the better bet? We should use 8 as the base line, because the alterative of 7.5 is a half-point better. So looking at the +115 row and the "even or even +0.5" column we see the fair equivalent is -102. The Hilton price on over 7.5 is -115, which is worse than -102, making over 8 +115 at the MGM the better bet.


Let's look at some more examples. Here are some lines from the Braves Vs. Cubs game.


Hilton: Over 10 -115, Under 10 -105

MGM: Over 10.5 EV, Under 10.5 -120


If we assume under 10 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 10.5 -123. So the under 10.5 -120 at the MGM is better. If we assume over 10.5 EV to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 10 -117. So the over 10 -115 at the Hilton is better.


Next, here are lines from the Bluejays vs Red Sox game.

Stations: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115

Hilton: Over 8 -125, Under 8 +105


If we assume under 8 +105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is under 8.5 -111. The under 8.5 -115 at Stations is not as good, so under 8 +105 is the better bet. If we assume over 8.5 -105 to be fair, then the equivalent bet is over 8 -123. The over 8 -125 at the Hilton is not as good, so the over 8 -105 is the better bet.



Awesome jacket.

Total Runs, Hits, and Errors


Sometimes in the post-season, the casinos will offer an over/under prop on the total combined runs, hits and errors. I noticed there is a fairly linear relationship between the projected total and the actual total of runs, hits and errors. The least-squares regression line for the estimated total runs, hits and errors is 12.45 + 1.817 × t, where t represented the estimated total.


The following table shows the estimated and actual total runs, hits and errors according to the projected total runs.











Total Combined Runs, Hits and Errors in MLB
Total Sample Size Estimated Actual
6 1 23.35 14.00
6.5 71 24.26 24.46
7 610 25.17 24.81
7.5 1635 26.08 26.36
8 2393 26.98 26.74
8.5 4122 27.89 27.80
9 5337 28.80 28.88
9.5 4472 29.71 29.92
10 2395 30.62 30.53
10.5 1736 31.53 31.42
11 747 32.43 32.22
11.5 285 33.34 33.75
12 131 34.25 33.80
12.5 102 35.16 33.61
13 77 36.07 35.97
13.5 55 36.98 36.73
14 47 37.89 35.96
14.5 35 38.79 40.29
15 15 39.70 45.33

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Filter this

Hmmph. Apparently here in the office, my favorite /sp/orts and coo/ck/ing forums are considered "pornography" by this stupid filter. That's fine. You can't bring Katie Greene to the ebaums, you bring ebaums to Katie Greene's 16th Parallel.








 Mai Waifu!

Helmet 2, Uni 8


Monday, September 27, 2010

FUCKING A-Q PAI GOW PUSHES AGAINST MY ROYAL FLUSH. ASSHOLE.

PREVIOUSLY ON THE 16th PARALLEL...

"by the way, fyi, the electric eel is a worthless piece of shit. there. i said it."
Oh fuck me, your lady friend got a voice?
Today Was a Good Day

THE FOLLOWING TAKES PLACE BETWEEN 7:00 AM AND 8:00 AM.

EVENTS OCCUR IN REAL TIME.

The permalinks above? I put those there because one talks about playing Pai Gow Poker with Maggie the Cat, and the last one talks about the progression I was using on bodog.com which can be modified for craps, yes, but in its original form works very well for Pai Gow Poker. Unless your 30% of losing hands comes fast and furious and knocks you out before any of your 41% of push hands or 29% of winning hands make an appearance.

Pai Gow Poker is a pretty cool game. In no way does skill at poker translate to skill at Pai Gow Poker-- it's all raw, stupid luck. There are some strategies, but like i've told you good 16th Parallel Peons and infrequent 16th Parallel Peon Nyree Minasian, "Doubles triumphs over theory any day of the week."

And speaking of Nyree Minasian, btw, a special thanks to all of Tia Katie's friends who aren't going to read this because they're busy reading other, stupider shit which doesn't even offer any practical analysis on something which they might enjoy, like oh I don't know-- Craps, perchance? No, no, no. Gotta read something on Salon, or about how some chick is running a regression on why dudes aren't calling her back depending on which base she let them get to.

(note from Katie:  in hindsight here in 2010, i wish i had linked to this aforementioned article back in 2005)

What's even better is when one of Tia Katie's friends e-mails him asking him to read some poem he posted on some obscure blog. And fully acknowledges that his 16thP-ing has been very infrequent, but asks Tia Kate to overlook this inequity.

Back to the Pai Gow Poker. All raw, stupid luck I sez...

lucky you, bodog.com...

Pigfuckers. The goddam straight flush didn't win. Not with a 6-4 Low Hand. You like that? You'll love this one...

eff you, bodog.com...

And with that title attribute, I've found a new post title. Also gotta add two older recap posts about Insaniquarium. Check em out, you probably haven't read them. And then go play Insaniquarium.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Studies Show: You May Be Stupid and Not Even Know It!

(note from katie:  this is an old post stolen in its entirety from AnnA, from AnnA's old blog.  i don't think i read it all the way through in 2005.  don't feel obliged to do so in 2010.)  

Incompetence is bliss, say researchers

BY ERICA GOODE
New York Times

There are many incompetent people in the world. But a Cornell University study has shown that most incompetent people do not know that they are incompetent.

People who do things badly, according to David A. Dunning, a professor of psychology at Cornell, are usually supremely confident of their abilities -- more confident, in fact, than people who do things well.

One reason that the ignorant also tend to be the blissfully self-assured, the researchers believe, is that the skills required for competence often are the same skills necessary to recognize competence.

The incompetent, therefore, suffer doubly, the researchers -- Dunning and Justin Kruger, then a graduate student -- suggested in a paper appearing in the December issue of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

"Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it,'' wrote Kruger, now an assistant professor at the University of Illinois, and
Dunning.

This deficiency in "self-monitoring skills,'' the researchers said, helps explain the tendency of the humor-impaired to persist in telling jokes that are not funny, of day traders to repeatedly jump into the market -- and repeatedly lose out -- and of the politically clueless to continue holding forth at dinner parties on the fine points of campaign strategy.

Some college students, Dunning said, evince a similar blindness: After doing badly on a test, they spend hours in his office, explaining why the answers he suggests for the test questions are wrong.

In a series of studies, Kruger and Dunning tested their theory of incompetence. They found that subjects who scored in the lowest quartile on tests of logic, English grammar and humor were also the most likely to
"grossly overestimate'' how well they had performed.

In all three tests, subjects' ratings of their ability were positively linked to their actual scores. But the lowest-ranked participants showed much greater distortions in their self-estimates.

Aiming high -- real high

Asked to evaluate their performance on the test of logical reasoning, for example, subjects who scored in only the 12th percentile guessed that they had scored in the 62nd percentile and deemed their overall skill at logical reasoning to be at the 68th percentile.

Similarly, subjects who scored at the 10th percentile on the grammar test ranked themselves at the 67th percentile in the ability to "identify grammatically correct standard English'' and estimated their test scores to be at the 61st percentile.

On the humor test, in which participants were asked to rate jokes according to their funniness (subjects' ratings were matched against those of an "expert'' panel of professional comedians), low-scoring subjects were also more apt to have an inflated perception of their skill. But because humor is idiosyncratically defined, the researchers said, the results were less conclusive.

Unlike their unskilled counterparts, the most able subjects in the study, Kruger and Dunning found, were likely to underestimate their own competence. The researchers attributed this to the fact that, in the
absence of information about how others were doing, highly competent subjects assumed that others were performing as well as they were -- a phenomenon psychologists term the "false consensus effect.''

When high-scoring subjects were asked to ``grade'' the grammar tests of their peers, however, they quickly revised their evaluations of their own performance. In contrast, the self-assessments of those who scored badly themselves were unaffected by the experience of grading others; some subjects even further inflated their estimates of their own abilities.

"Incompetent individuals were less able to recognize competence in others,'' the researchers concluded.

In a final experiment, Dunning and Kruger set out to discover if training would help modify the exaggerated self-perceptions of incapable subjects. In fact, a short training session in logical reasoning did improve the
ability of low-scoring subjects to assess their performance realistically, they found.

The findings, the psychologists said, support Thomas Jefferson's assertion that "he who knows best knows how little he knows.''

Such studies are not without critics. David C. Funder, a psychology professor at the University of California-Riverside, for example, said he suspected that most lay people had only a vague idea of the meaning of
``average'' in statistical terms.

But Dunning said his current research and past studies indicated that there were many reasons why people would tend to overestimate their competency and not be aware of it.

Concrete clues

In some cases, Dunning pointed out, an awareness of one's own inability is inevitable: "In a golf game, when your ball is heading into the woods, you know you're incompetent,'' he said.

But in other situations, feedback is absent, or at least more ambiguous; even a humorless joke, for example, is likely to be met with polite laughter. And social norms prevent most people, when faced with incompetence, from blurting out, "You stink!'' -- truthful though this assessment may be.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Tonight, on the 16th Parallel: Katie Greene fucks with your head!

CwTKnockers is here. We were just talking about the season premiere of the FX's The League.  If you watched it, here's my hint for The Game.  (and no, GTFO with "The Game".  it was fun playing the first few months of ebaums...)

Horniness is what she grants you. snap-snap-snap-snap The best part of her new video is the whipped cream. snap Nary a tear was shed when she transitioned into pop music, but... Demons caused her to leave her old genre. Christian music was her specialty. snap-snap-snap-snap Long legs give me a boner. Dykey girls are excited by her.
Holy shit, CwTKnockers got it! I feel bad now that I looked up the answer with minimal effort to figure it out.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Fuckin' Giants.

Was too busy watching the giants shit on their meager NL West lead to find an old post to recycle. 

So, WTF, more original Katie-shit?  Consider yourselves blessed, 16th Parallel Peons.

I like to consider myself pretty good at the internets.  But somehow, this one slipped through the cracks.  I only saw it for the first time on Web Soup.  And it's fucking awesome.



On another note, I don't think i've ever used the embed html code in a youtube vid before. i don't remember posting youtube shit on the old blog.

I'm all caught up with visiting other people's blogs. About fucking time too.

Katie Greene, Vice President of Public Relations, Expresso Parking

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Original Content? In my 16th Parallel?

I'm just as shocked as you are.
still mai waifu!

Your good buddy Katie didn't have enough time to hunt down some old posts for recycling.  Turns out that writing something in 2010 is a lot easier than finding old posts from pre-2007 and sanitizing them.

Giants up 1-0 over the Cusb, 2 out in the bottom of the Ninth!

Padres also up over the Dodgers, D-backs leading the Rockies last time i checked...

love always
Katie Greene

ps-  i'm slowly makign the rounds.  i was in the office today, not in the field.  if you've commented, i'm coming!  if i'm following you, i'm getting to your updates!
pps-  giants win 1-0!  5-3 on the putout  giants up 1 game over the pads, behind the Barves 1/2 game for the WC (sorta)

Monday, September 20, 2010

Today Was a Good Day

do you see what i did there?
Normally, I'd have a nice juicy post for you, especially with such a Katie -tastic weekend. But I'm watching my Season 4 DVD of The Shield, so you'll make do with a post that's receiving less than my full attention.

Went to Cache Creek today. Not with Maggie the Cat, though. My grandma called me up, said that she had a coupon for complimentary $20 slot play. Who am I to refuse? Although I was somewhat concerned that I shot my wad of luck on Friday when I turned $38 into $199 on bodog. That's good, yes, but I was afraid that I had used up all my gambling karma.

Staked $140-- because my preferred stake of $138 is just a pain in the ass sometimes-- dipped down to $70, $80 at one point but then made a miraculous recovery to pull even and then up to around $180 or so. Pulled out at $168 because it was time to go home.

Tia Katie, you might be asking if you too share the gambling bug, How can I make a miraculous recovery too? Well, 16th Parallel Peons, I've posted this progression before. If i'm not lazy, I'll find it for you.

<update time=0053>
You're in luck: Feelin' Crappy!

You wanna know how not to gamble like a little girl? Check out the tips in that post right there...
</update>

1-2-3-6-4-8-4-8-...

This gets kinda messy when you get to the six and the eight and you have some wiggle room when you have to place 6 or 8 units on a single line bet. If you're playing with double odds, you can have a 2-unit line bet, and a 4-unit free odds.

Lay 9 to win 5 that we lost our little girl AnnA's comprehension with "free odds". Press it up one unit that the concept of "laying odds" went over his head too. Hope you had your "AnnA Don't Understand Pressing One Unit" bet working. That's just easy money.

So back to the progression. Double free-odds. If you're lucky enough to get to the 6 and win, what do you do with the 4? 2 and 2? Wrong. You can take 2 behind the line with 1 on the line. Your Tia Katie usually changes the progression to ...-3-6-3-6-... Which reminds me, you gotta start off 2-2 and not 1-2. So really, it's

2-2-3-6-3-6-...

Easier said than done.

Lunch at the buffet with grandma, and that's one nice buffet! Maybe even better than some of the nicer Vegas buffets. I liked the Aladdin and the Luxor, but I think this one beat both of them. Ice Cream Sundae bar, good prime rib, potstickers didn't suck. Quite the bargain. Anyway, was thinking about the Katie-progression during lunch, since I saw on the way over that the tables were actually $5 and not $10 like I thought I saw earlier.

Cache Creek is 3-4-5 free odds. Whole Other set of problems. But it lets us get back to 2-2-3-6-4-8-4-8-...

2 - 1 and 1
2 - 1 and 1
3 - 1 and 2
6 - umm, we'll get to that in a second
4 - 1 and 3. Duh. This is where I lost.
8 - Didn't get here. 2 and 6? maybe something related to the 6-unit bet?

For the 6-unit: 1 on the line and max free odds. You may have 2 or 1 units free. You can place the extra unit(s) on the 6 and/or the 8. Press one unit until you Ess-out. "Seven-out" if you're AnnA.

For the 8-unit: Now that I think about it, 1 and 3 and placing 4 units is a huge pain in the ass. Do that if you feel like it, but you might be better off with 2 and 6. No fuss, no muss.

Went shooting after dropping grandma off. Tried the 20-gauge, but some ejector-dealie wasn't ejecting the spent shells like it was supposed to. Manager of the store put some teflon-dealie on it, but I wasn't paying attention. I'll clean the guns tomorrow, as it's well past my bedtime.

The Shield is rad, recommend you check it out if you haven't already. If you're fortunate enough to be in my good graces, ask to borrow my copy. Or invite yourself over. Just lemme clean up a bit first...

Tia Katie